Julia Gillard looks like winning with the backing of some of the independents:
Privately, the two NSW independents Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor, were leaning toward Labor, and would break from Queensland independent Bob Katter if needed.
With their support and that of Greens MP Adam Bandt, Ms Gillard would be able to form government with the slimmest of margins and claim the critical 76 seats needed to govern.
Oakeshott could get his reward:
Sources claimed the independents had already knocked back offers from both sides of the speakers role in Parliament. However, the lure of a Labor ministry was still believed to be on offer to Mr Oakeshott.
Oakeshott in particular, being in fact a Leftist, has talked of introducing a new consensus politics: ROB OAKESHOTT: And a model, a consensus model of politics that considers how we can build a bit of a buffer, I think, is something Id be very interested to talking to anyone with I think one of the more creative ones was South Australia. There was a National Party member in the Cabinet of a majority Labor Government, for example, even when it wasnt a situation like this.... And you know, I think thats a response - and a positive response - to the big message of the ballot box last weekend, which is this sense of being underwhelmed in the Australian community by the current state of the way politics is played on these rigid adversarial lines between a blue team and a red team.
LEIGH SALES: On that point, when youve been asked in the past few days about how youre going to make up your mind about who to support, you said that one of the things you would like to see is the reform of the processes of Parliament. What exactly are you looking for there?
ROB OAKESHOTT: Thats one example. Trying to move the Australian Parliament towards compromise and negotiation rather than strict one says black the other says white.
It all sounds so sweet. But such consensus politics tends in practice not just to drown the brilliance of the individual in the mediocrity of the collective - and usually the collective of the commentariat class.
Worse is that consensus politics tends to be the kind of a politics in which voters actually get less debate and less choice. Indeed, the first act of these champions of consensus seems to be to ignore the will of the conservative electorates which voted them in:
(Tony Windsors) problem is that while he has campaigned heavily on issues such as broadband and health, his support base is very conservative, said Mr Jarratt, the Tamworth region chairman of the NSW Farmers Association.
But if he were to side with the ALP, then it means he has issues with his electorate - any candidate running against him next election would be saying a vote for Tony is a vote for Labor.
An on-the-ground survey by The Australian in the three rural independent seats yesterday - Mr Windsors New England, Rob Oakeshotts NSW seat of Lyne, and Bob Katters Queensland seat of Kennedy - found much the same sentiment. Many, but far from all, of those who voted for their independent believe it would be a betrayal if their MPs gave Julia Gillard the numbers to continue governing when they could have installed Tony Abbott.
I doubt Bob Katter will do an Oakeshott, however, and help to install a Labor/Green team:
In 1996 Katter defended a fellow Nationals candidate for saying citizenship ceremonies dewogged people by arguing: He is also making the Leichhardt seat a testing ground for those who are game to defy the politically correct enviroNazis and femiNazis and all the rest of these little slanty eye ideologues who persecute ordinary, average Australians all of the time and continuously and indulge in thought control.
In case anyone thinks he has mellowed, this was Katter in 2006 on the Wild Rivers legislation: This country will now belong to these little enviroNazis hiding in their concrete jungles in the big cities.
It will make mining developments impossible. All changes of usage will have to be run past some pimply-faced university degreed enviroNazi who is all puffed up with his own self-importance and power.
UPDATE
Oakeshott seems bent on giving us a Labor-Greens government:
LEIGH SALES: When you say the make-up of the Senate is important, does that mean that you will be considering what sort of a government in the House of Representatives could work best with a Senate where the balance of power is going to be held by the Greens?
ROB OAKESHOTT: Yeah, look, thats a personal view, but I think yes.
Agrarian socialist meets urban socialists and sees something to like.
UPDATE 3
If the three ex-Nationals Independent MPs listen to the people who voted them in, theyd back Tony Abbott over Julia Gillard. Here is the Senate vote as of 10.30am in each of their seats, showing a very strong preference for the Coalition:
In New England (Tony Windsors seat) the Senate first preference vote is Liberal/National 42.94% to Labor 29.50%. Shooters and Fishers at 6.11% almost tied with the Greens 6.99%.
In Lyne (Rob Oakeshott) the Liberals/Nationals are also well in front, with 45.89% to Labor 30.53%. The Greens have 8.11%, and Shooters and Fishers 3.86%.
In Kennedy (Bob Katter): the Liberal National Party on 40.76% is way ahead of the ALP, on 27.24%. The Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party - motto: working hard to keep the Greens out of the Senate in Queensland - has 6.69%, beating the Greens on 6.20%. Add the Shooters and Fishers on 4.17%, One Nation on 2.07% and Family First on 3.16% and you have a deeply conservative electorate, strongly against Labor and the Greens.
(Thanks to reader Bazzak from Tamworth.) http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/
