Thanks for that outline,
@Hunterr. It's a reasonable one.
So as at June 30 they will have about:
- AU$200k left in the bank from the March 30 3c report.
- AU$1.7m from the secondary prospectus raise.
- US$980k (about AU$1.4m) from the loan. (Of which five months was paid in advance, the remainder having getting first claim of the wreckage in the case of VA - more about this below).
According to the March 30 report they burn just under AU$1.7m a quarter now. Someone may want to check my review of the announcements to make sure I got it right. Let's say a couple extraordinary items pop up and they'll have enough dough to possibly make early November. So the out-of-money-and-forced-VA window is from mid-October to mid-November.
The loan, by the way, had the first five months paid in advance. The first five months ends on Oct 16, a coincidental timing, meaning the first additional interest payment would be on November 16th. SAS will need US$20k in the bank to pay that interest charge in Nov (not to mention make payroll, etc). So the additional raising happens sometime in September/early October at the latest.
I seriously doubt they will be able to dip into the Australian retail/SI market again. You've got to think that well has dried up at this point. But you never know.
Regardless, my guess is that if this lives then it means they have found an overseas investor with enough cash to finance through to IoT revenue and who will most likely take ownership of the company away from the directors (and dilute us to buggery, but that's better than bust IMO). That will allow them to name a couple local directors from Directors-R-Us, not to mention whatever directors the hypothetical investor would name. Otherwise it's straight to VA when the dough runs out.
So, we can sit back and wait as the days tick over to September which is when funding and ASX announcements will hot up again (after the expected July 1 further extension). Possibly some more MOU's may come in August and other statements like the recent CIO/CEO releases, maybe providing a hint as to potential investors. But otherwise it's wait and see. From Sept 16 (a Monday) to October 16 (a Wednesday) is when we'll see action again.
