The broker analysis comment I remember reading had two elements, $10m for development projects and $30m/mt of JORC when there was a pathway to production. I'd applied the $10m test to GL1's historical MC and it worked. Core Lithium managed to raise the funding to build its DFS and plant infrastructure during that period. Their 15June2020 JORC was 14.72Mt @ 1.32%. Their 12 July 2022 JORC increased that to 18.9Mt @ 1.32%. It was their JORC resource update in April 2023 that took the resource past 20Mt and out to 30.6Mt @ 1.31%. Across March 2022 to December 2022 Core typically traded above $1/share and with 1.7 to 1.8b shares on issue at the time had a MC over $2b for a while. Core was therefore trading above the $30m reference point. Core's deposit also has the issue that it is spread across multiple deposits and while both Grants and BP33 are high grade, the deposit structure requires UG mining to obtain most of the ore. Core's new plan is to be a fully UG mining operation.
Atlantic lithium is another example. They did a deal with Piedmont that improved their pathway to production (but they are still having difficulties with permitting and now with the general lithium sentiment). Atlantic had a Dec2021 JORC of 21.3Mt @ 1.26%. By March 2022 they had increased that to 30.1Mt @ 1.26%. Atlantic's deal had Piedmont owning 50% but even the best African deals result in the state owning 10% of the project on a free-carry basis so while deals weren't struck at that point in time, Atlantic's interest was 45% at best. Atlantic lithium briefly had a MC that exceeded £300m. Most of 2022 to June 2023 was above £200m pounds and that was for an economic interest of under 15Mt. On their ASX listing they almost got to A$1/share (they got over 90c) and had 606m shares on issue within their June 2022 AR. They were over a $500m MC for an economic interest of under 15Mt of JORC.
Its unclear if Lithium will see quite those same high's again but if you used long-term prices like US$2,000 to US$3,000 for SC6, it was possible to justify most of the share prices that were occurring at the time.
The volumes these projects have as their JORC resource is not materially different to what Burmeister/Jagermeister may have if the upper end of the exploration target is correct. If Burmeister continues down to 400-500m plus and you add an UG operation to the proposal it could be much larger than 20mt.
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July 2025 Results & Development/Exploration Plan, page-7
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