jumbo expands into germany, page-42

The main problem with this company, and a lot of others like it, is that they do not control the content that they are using (in this industry the regulators and the lottery owners do). They have had massive success so far exploiting this relationship in Australia to earn excess returns, and possibly will overseas. But the problem with this is, excess returns will eventually attract others who want a share of a rapidly growing pie.

I think this company has significant earnings risk - Tatts latest half-year results shows (at least to me) that the scenario above COULD (not will) play out much faster than others may suspect. Customer incentivisation (what JIN calls "marketing expenses") can and will come from other competitors, especially Tatts in Australia.

I don't agree that there is a doomsday scenario for JIN, but I don't think that they will continue getting excess returns on their business model forever - because they have no sustainable competitive advantage. They may yet develop one - but that is wild guessing at this point.

This was an earnings re-pricing play when I purchased it earlier last year - it's fast running to an end IMO.