Yes, no point getting political. We're here to make money.I was...

Yes, no point getting political. We're here to make money.


I was thinking about the impacts of lockdowns, and I'd love someone to sanity check my thinking. The below is my forecast, if no stores were open at all for all of 1HFY22...
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Assuming there are no lease reductions, I have the following cost profile for the entire half - assuming all stores shut (not the case):

- Salary: Usually $41.7m for the half, would approximate $13m in a half if no stores open (all customer facing staff stood down)
- Leases: $18m (half of current lease liab)
- Finance costs: $1m (should be zero, but adding in some fat for drawing down funds)
- Other: $10m

Total expense profile of $39m.

Work that backwards - assuming GPM of 64%, then $60m in online sales is required to cover everything for the half. $120m sales online (if no stores open), is very easily achieable IMO ($243m pcp), leaving GP of $77m. PBT using above figures of $38m...
Note: some increased expenditure for postage/logistics, and I've excluded DC upgrade costs (one-off).


This is obviously not the case, but I am just modelling the impact of store closures, and I can't really figure out a half/half scenario. Would like to know if I've missed anything obvious - I feel like I have.