My final predictions for the June quarter:
1)Zinc production/sold - total(payable) 31.5(26.2)kt - 69.5(57.7)Mlb from 65.7kt concentrate @ 48% grade
2)C1 Costs(payable basis): US105c/lb, AISC(payable basis): US126c/lb
3)Average Zinc Price rec'd: US172.5c/lb
4)Cash at bank: A$70mil
5)FY22 Zinc production sold - total(payable) 115.2(95.7)kt - 254.0(211.1)Mlb from 242kt conc @ 47.6% grade
6)FY22 C1 Costs(payable basis): US104c/lb, AISC(payable basis): US125c/lb but I account for ALL production costs, so expect them to report C1 Costs of around US93c/lb
I have sold my remaining small shareholding as I can't see them making profits again from the tailings operation as from the current Sept quarter due to the collapse in the zinc price - I'm predicting that the cash at bank will decrease by $15mil to $55mil in the Sept qtr and that there will be a negative $23mil in operating cash generated.
I can't see them being able to produce more than 70kt in zinc concentrate per quarter which is insufficient at today's prices to make a profit. There will also be significant negative QP's to be repaid in the Dec quarter and then from Jan23 they have to start repaying A$10.67mil per month(A32mil per quarter over five quarters)to Argo in repayment of the enviro bond.
I believe staying here that shareholders will become 'roadkill' in another monster equity raising in the not too distant future to partly finance the in-situ development. Don't know who would be willing to underwrite such an issue as NCZ will be making significant losses from this quarter so I would expect a large discount to the current price.
They will hype the June quarter result as there was record production that was sold at record prices for a quarter to produce record sales value but the market dynamics have changed in the last couple of weeks.
Schedules attached:
1)Cashflow/Sales for Jun22 qtr estimate, FY22 estimate, Sept qtr prediction
2)Shipping schedule per quarter for FY22
3)Hedging calculation estimates up to Sept22
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