June Quarter Results, page-8

The Target stuff is exciting - it's very hard to know because SZL have said they can't comment on pilot/test periods before entering into ongoing contracts with these larger enterprise customers. I imagine they're still in pilot phase - they may not think an agreement with Target warrants an ASX announcement (I think it does), but surely would have been announced on their Instagram. Regardless they definitely seem on the right track with what would be an absolute monster of a signup.

In terms of dropping death rates, it's still too early to conclude the effect overall - with a much younger demographic now being infected and presumably hospitalised in greater numbers, % of deaths to infections may reduce, but with a near unrestricted explosion in infections, absolute deaths could climb dramatically. The last remaining pillar for those who don't think COVID is an issue rests on this - they've been stating for weeks now that increasing cases but lower death rates. With deaths, particularly in younger patients, lagging 4-6 weeks, the climb up could begin toward the end of July. Even still, various metrics on US economy are shockingly bad:
- New jobless claims - 1m+ week on week
- Continuous jobless claims - barely reducing at all
- Majority of states paused re-openings - i.e. reduction in jobs being reinstated
- Many states implementing new restrictions - i.e. new job losses that were otherwise reinstated in May/June
- Worst hit states of Cali, Texas and Florida make up something like 1/3 of total US GDP.
- Small business bankruptcies - already achieving significant increases compared to same period last year - i.e. jobs lost permanently
- Mortgage arrears - increasing numbers applying for mortgage stress
- US Government may extend some stimulus, but unlikely at the same level - i.e. reduced spending power for millions of unemployed Americans.
- Multiple hospital systems advising they are now on track to be overwhelmed within 2-3 weeks.
- Data already showing reductions in economic activity in hard-hit areas commencing late June (e.g. recent info from Goldman Sachs, but there would be others)

All the while new infections increase exponentially and across a broader section of the US. I don't think we'll see the sudden fall off a cliff like in March, I think this time will be a long slow downward bleed into the end of the year and hopefully good news re a vaccine. I suppose I'm all about probabilities - the question to ask is, with all these problems above, and with the markets already at/near all-time highs, do we think we're heading higher, or materially lower?