Average to above average rain fell across most of Australia's grain growing regions in June, boosting prospects for the 2009/10 wheat crop which is in the final stages of being planted.
Analysts said on Monday that the favourable start to the growing season meant that estimates of the next harvest, ranging from 21 million to 23 million tonnes, were unlikely to be significantly changed in the near term.
"We've seen excellent rains across large parts of the wheat belt and it has really given an excellent start to the cropping season," Luke Mathews, a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said.
He said more rain was needed to ensure a crop at least as big as last season's 21.4 million tonnes harvest, but forecasts were for drier-than-normal weather in some southern cropping regions.
"It will all fall in a great big heap if we don't get good winter and spring rains but, if we focus on the here and now, then the outlook is cautiously good," said Mathews.
Falls of up to 10 millimetres are forecast for southern Western Australia, southern Australia and the continent's south-east this week but northern cropping areas were expected to be dry.
Australia, the world's fourth largest wheat exporter, usually exports up to two-thirds of its national harvest but drought in recent years has reduced shipments.
Australian Crop Forecasters analyst Gavin Warburton said crops in eastern and southern Australia had been boosted by solid rain during June but crops in some parts of Western Australia, the country's top grain exporting state, had received below average rain.
Western Australia's northern Geraldton zone received average rains in June, the southern zones of Albany and Esperance received above average rain while the central Fremantle zone had below average rain in some areas and average in others, Warburton said.
He said good rain was received across much of southern and eastern Australia in June as planting of winter crops, that commenced in April, drew to an end.
"Crops are up and away but we're still in a position where further timely rains will be needed," Mr Warburton said.
He said ACF expected to only fine tune its estimate of a national wheat crop of 22.7 million tonnes when the estimate was up-dated next week.
ACF's estimate would make the crop the largest since 2005/06 when 25.2 million tonnes was harvested.
The country's grain production is still recovering from the worst drought in more than 100 years that reduced the 2006/07 crop to just 10.6 million tonnes and the 2007/08 crop to 13.0 million tonnes.
Climate models are indicating an increased risk of an El Nino event developing in the second half of 2009, that would bring drier weather to southern and south-east Australia.
Australia's Bureau of Meteorology, in a report last week, said some parts of southern Australia could experience drier-than-normal weather during the next three months.
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