I can't see the share price being at $2 per shares once drilling...

I can't see the share price being at $2 per shares once drilling comences because $2 per share is the resulting price for my calculations for a sucessfull find.

Lets say the find 400 million barrels recoverable. At $15 NPV per barrel 20% to FAR this amounts to $1.2billion or roughly $2 per share. Given that there are technical risks associated with the drilling and risks or sub-commercial flowrates even if the oil was found, I am guessing around 50-70c per shares just pre-drill. Also given that FAR has no other assets of value other then Senegal to justify a shares price of more then about 4c per share.

What are other peoples pre-drill shares price estimates??