Jocam, at the moment i think most oilers are watching the oil price. Talk of sub US$20 etc is scaring the market.
But as your said, for specs it's not the main issue. Just a gloom phase that traders can take advantage of.
I've read that oil will probably stay around $25 for awhile. It's going to take a while for Iraq to get back into full production. OPEC are producing fully at the moment and will meet soon to reinstate quotas.
What people have to remember is that the lower oil prices goes, the more pain highcost OPEC producers will go through, and the more consensus there will be on quotas and sticking to them. So I cannot see prices going below $20 short-medium term.
The main problem I'm finding at the moment is discovering the next exciting drilling campaign!?? Apart from ARQ's 5 wells at years end and AYO Turkish delight, I cannot see much. Hopefully Leafcutter will excite and maybe HDR can finally prove what they've got off Mauritania (but i'm not convinved the market will take any notice, besides traders)
I've finally started to look outside my sector .. ug! I've bought ACU with their cancer vaccine and am looking at DOW calls/puts
As for PSA, during the upcoming quite period, gas prices were expected to fall to around $2.50-3.50/MCF but analysts say this may not happen because of consolidations in the oil market and the time it takes to get major fields up and running. So gas prices in the short-medium term probably won't fall below $4.
