junior oilers 17/18 may, page-8

Thanks Sinkers and Blackgold for your comments on the Perth Basin. It looks like moving the oil along the Brand Highway could be a constraint on Arc's production in the short term. Eventually if enough oil is discovered, a pipeline will become the best and cheapest option but these things take a while to get approved and a while to build.
Maybe this problem was behind Eric's decision to sell out of Cliff Head, he needed the money for his upcoming exploration program and knew he was not going to get all he wanted from Hovea/Eremia production because of the supply problem. But I am only guessing. At least they have trucks moving current production. In PNG, Cue and Santos were looking at the option of trucking oil from Bilip to SE Gobe facilities but were worried about the trucks being hijacked!!!
On Bounty (BUY) the options are exercisable at 20 cents in January 04 so not much time left on them. You would only buy them as a punt on Leafcutter being a success because that is the only way these are ever going to be in the money this year. In any event there is virtually none available which is a bit surprising. There are 100000 on offer at 2.5 cents but that is too expensive for me. You have to be prepared to write your whole investment off if the well is a duster. I am prepared to buy them under 1.5 cents in the knowledge I might never see the money again. I currently hold 100000 bought at 1.1 cents.
On the fully paids and what they would do if Leafcutter is a success, I confess I don't know, this market is so hard to read. But if Leafcutter comes in it is the making of Bounty without doubt and could see the shares above 20 cents initially then as the import of the find sinks in they could go to 40 or 50 cents. I think in the current climate a massive speculative spike to 50 cents on news of a discovery is unlikely. And the pre drill action just hasn't happened on this one but the fact that we are talking about it on this board suggests there couldbe more interest in the stock this week.
On strategy for trading the oilers, I don't advise newcomers to the oil sector to hold a company through a well, if that consitutes their first investment in the sector. You only do that if you have profits elsewhere, part of which you are prepared to risk on a well, or if you just like the thrill of a gamble. After a while you get to know that each well has its different risk/reward ratio depending on its nature wildcat/appraisal/development and where it is drilled onshore/offshore and you get a better idea of the likelihood of success. A question for me for example is whether to hold my Petsec through the drilling of the next two wells at West Cameron. I haven't made up my mind yet.
Again thanks all for your comments and good luck to Were with AYO. You wouldhave to think that Adatepe has a reasonable chance of coming in given its proximity to Gocerler and the proven productivity of its target sand. But no sure things in this game. And Blackgold, I hope your luck is about to change on Leafcutter.