I did see your HC posting from last night. I do intend responsing to it in detail later this week /the weekend. In the meantime, yes, I am seeing the formative traces of a trend emerging, including on the CAPEX side.
The CAPEX trend runs counter to what most analysts are currently predicting (ie: still in a downtrend). However, several global reports are pointing to a significant increase in Telstra CAPEX commitments in 2003 which, coupled with Hutchison's 3G rollout, will support network expansion and evolution.
TEL, VOD and SGT, however, are still in CAPEX declines which will continue into 2003.
For now, the smaller telcos (not all of them, but some of them) should perform surprisingly well in the next 12 months. Again, I will explain more on this asap later in the week.
Will PWT be one of them. That remains a matter in contention although, as alluded to inprevious posts, a take-out scenario involving either Utilitel, or some association with Cheung Kong is quite possible.
Will UEC be one of them. To an extent, yes. But UEC suffers from parental overhang, with UEL now determined to exit from the stock asap.
