OK. Ballieu reckons the following:Adjusted Profit (2011) -5.5m...

OK. Ballieu reckons the following:

Adjusted Profit (2011) -5.5m (2012) +17.6m (2013) $23.4m

Assumptions
A$/oz(2011)1457.55 (2012)1501.00 (2013)1543.75
Capital Expenditure (2011) -27.0 (2012)-25.3 (2013) -25.7

http://www.cgt.net.au/IRM/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1414&EID=68173657

Company confirms previous guidance.

Tangible risks are POG & continued safe mine operaton.

PE less than 3 by 2013 projections.

My Conclusion.

I'll hold to my previously posted price target of 80c but accept the current heavy bear market discount (on everything) may guide Baillieu's conservative target of 55c.

Longer term there should be upside IMHO when Castlemaine gets going with expected head grades of at least 7gpt.

Overall head grade risk for both Ballarat and Castlemaine is relativey low (by my guess) and negligible (by my guess) for Ballarat over the next two or 3 years.

Don't rely on my dodgy numberings BUT if the Ballieu report is anything like correct then CGT is sitting on very profitable, cash positive digs.

Regarding the shareprice I'm not that concerned given that none of the juniors have come close to catchiing up with the POG. Also, as CGT guidance indicates a high profit margin, the business case is not dramatically impacted by a carbon tax. Further I don't believe that Labor will allow Bob Brown to kill off the gold industry (in the near to medium term at least).

cheers