just a theory ..., page-30

re: just a theory ...grandnegus ? Kahuna

here is the quote - I don;t think the detailed prospectus is on the net.

"...engineering works required to progress the opportunity to an approved project, are estimated to total US$2.2bn of which US$1.6 bn is required up until then end of the first year of production. The estimate assumes that due to the extended field life, the FPSO would be project owned instead of leased (as is planned for Chinguetti). An aggressive appraisal plan is expected, and given success, RISC judges that the field could be in production by mid-2008."

This on page 73 of the ROC Rights issue prospectus - (published in March/April this year) and is in a report ROC commissioned from an independednt firm of experts - RISC.

They also gave a P10-P90 for Tiof of 129-712 MMbbl - with P50 of 328 MMbbl.

Since then of course, the JV have flagged an earlier smaller production program - before moving to full field production - in order get oil flowing late 2006 or 2007.

I think this number adds to your thesis - as buying into Chingueti does not give Sterling Energy and input to Tiof (PSC B) whereas there share (via Fusion) is in PSC A - and I must admit - I had completely overlooked the fact that Fusion had been taken over by Sterling.

Funding Tiof is going to huge - and buying in at a 50% penalty for past work could make it impossible for Sterling/Islamic Republic.

All the same - it has prompted me to look at buying into Sterling!