just a theory ..., page-38

re: just a theory ... kahuna kahuna and all

Interesting theory kahuna and a gold star for effort and research and SIZE! And by the way thanks to Davftz for the high praise indeed!

What you have theorised may be partly true - but I have been through all the imaginable conspiracy theories with HDR over the years and few have ended up being real. Having said that tough - the one that was real was that last year WPL was very deliberately playing down Mauritania - restricting information flow and putting out dull and often mis-interpretable announcements. After much questioning of HDR management I got the impression that WPL wasn't allowing them to say any more either. Then ... low and behold we have the JV buying out ENI's share at a bargain price!!! And HDR on-selling its share to BG at a big profit which sees them well funded for a year or two. Almost immediately thereafter WPL and HDR started talking up the Mauritania story - well hey that's business!!

So - I think that rather than trying to screw the Mauritanian government (which a number of other posters have pointed out would be unwise, eg infonet) it is more likley that WPL is attempting to screw one or more of its JV partners (shock hoorror!) for the purpose of a takeover (maybe even HDR but I think that's unlikley) or defend itself (and HDR) from a predator or predators (TGN pointed out that this is a likley reason for the "confidentiality" gag). There is a long list of potential predators, from Shell and COONC, to other majors like exxon, to BG (most likely in my view to be interested in HDR's share). I don't believe however, that any oil company would misreport drilling results for any purpose - so I agree with dodds on this. I also agree with abuman that the main reason for the sell down has been the end of the year's exploration with 3 duds that won't have sat too well with the institutions that bought in over the last 12 months (causing the big rise over that period). I have it on good authority that HDR's share registry went from less than 15% institutional ownership to over 45% in that period) - and I will be surprised if we don't see a change in substantial holding statement soonish. Plus the traders have exited because there will be no big payoffs in the next 3 months and there are plenty of other attractive plays at present if you have a short-term focus.

Great post and it has stimulated plenty of discussion and no doubt behind the scenes thinking/rethinking.

I for one have currently diversified into FCN and elsewhere and will be watching for opportunities to accumulate HDR. If there is no takeover play then there will be some months in which to do this, but if there is a play sooner - then I'm happy to be holding a good stash of HDR shares! But I wouldn't sell even now for $2.50!

H