Actualli I'm disappointed with the share price movement up today as I had been waiting for some weakness to get a lot more, and the share price was nearing my buy-in target zone. But this latest surge today might just knock my grand plans on the head!
I assumed that the share price had been holding up quite a bit in the last couple of weeks due to Hoperidge topping up its holding, and we already know that Hoperidge had been adding to its holdings with a confirmed 17 odd million shares added in the past month or so, to 68 million shares (8.2%).
Today's start of the big buying, with 5 million bid initially a lot lower around 6.3 - 6.4 cents I assumed was Hoperidge again, although from my observations this isn't necessarily the style of buying it has conducted in recent times. It tends to buy in smaller parcels, almost in stealth (probably using a bot). Todays trade came out of the blue and was far more aggressive!
So now that we know at least all of the first 10.0 million shares was bought by that aggressive buying (ie in excess of 8.3 million = 1% of SFI shares), and thus within the next 5 days if it was Hoperidge then we should see another substantial notice come out. If we don't then we know its likely to be another big buyer!
Now here's my theory:
If you note on NEA there was an announcement today by NAB/MLC/Antares Capital of ceasing to be a substantial shareholder in NEA. If you connect the two, and that I agree is a BIG IF, THEN PERHAPS we have now got a former backer of NEA supporting SFI. And of course I may be wrong, but its an interesting coincidence.
IF we have another big insto on the register of SFI that will definitely force the price of SFI higher, notwithstanding my own personal view that any confirmation by the company that it has now begun its commercialisation process in Australia, or the initiating phase of commencing work with Eagleview (on actual revenue-producing work!).
So now we wait to see if Hoperidge puts out another notice of change in holding or not.
I would assume that IF it was NAB et all then they won't have enough to get a substantial holding at this point unless they held around 3.5% previously.
Oh, and I am expecting a speeding ticket this afternoon for the company, as the volume was excessive, especially with the rise in share price. And if its a new entrant I wouldn't be surprised for SFI to declare no news but rehash a few facts already out there in the market, even if the certification is just around the corner!
And lastly, someone quoted the possibility of 8 cents for SFI - if they get into commercialization I would be very disappointed with 8 cents!
SFI Price at posting:
7.1¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
