just another thought this time on the timeline, page-30

Para and others who have asked the same questions

The registration statement is filed with the SEC in week 8 of 21 (or day 1 as far as we will be concerned in a 13 week period). While the DD and financials are organised in that pre SEC registration period, the prospectus will be drafted and presented for approval to the authorities 8 weeks later, which should be forthcoming a week later. We will have indicative pricing then something like 9 weeks after SEC filing, perhaps a little later or perhaps even a little earlier.

The bandwidth should be available already to most who study the minutiae. CS is basing the placement price on the forward booked orders for 3 years 2009-11. The 2007 AGM lists the various early adopters. Among these is Anzes, Airbus, Precilec and "a large airframe manufacturer whose name just might start with B in aerospace as well as others we now know of from the Hamburg airshow, Karmann and a Tier 1 now identified as Visteon, a major seatbelt manufacturer we had thought was Navistar but who must be Thompson and others in automotive, a major company involved in supplying the fasteners and sensors for Intevia Enterprise, the major hardware distribution company now named as Hafele, Larson now delivering the summer order next month to their customers, Porters supplying the security container market and 2 suppliers in the marine market including Wired Marine.

The total projected income from these already largely identified sources was projected as being $370M in 2011. My feeling is that the IPO will be based on booked revenue that assigns a projected market cap in the range $1-2B, say $1.5B. I also believe they will assign a low pe to the company in the prospectus based on ASX average, say 15-20 range so let's assume 17. Let's assume from various quotes that the margin is 55% gross (range 40-65%) and set net profit then at say 35%. We should then see a placement assuming valuation based on 60 M shares fully diluted in the range $20-30 based on gross booked income projected over 3 years in the range $200-300M. They will undersell the likely income and assign a low pe to make the placement as attractive as possible to large clients. These same clients will repay them by setting the strike price along with pent up demand for the shareas as the calculations upon which the placement is based as shown in the prospectus is seen by the wider US market. They want a quick return and no doubt the PR department will supply them with a steady flow of feeds indicating customer interest post IPO to drive the pe as high as possible. I expect the sorts of figures I have spoken about for some time to be achieved on day 1. Once the bigger computing players join up then my projections will immediately double.