You overlooked Fact 5. TZ have already stated they do NOT have to announce the start of the 21 week period. The first we hear about the process will probably be SEC filing leaving just 13 weeks to IPO. So on your scenario we could still be 13 weeks away from the SEC announcement. Equally it could mean that the date of the IPO is earlier than the end of November since SEC filing today adds just 3 months for the IPO. We will hear when we hear.
DKR selling may have ceased entirely. They have already made all $20M back from their notes after 18 months. The remaining 2.4 M shares are "cost free" and so risk is removed regardless of their operational rules. There has been a lot of shifting between nominee accounts in the last few weeks and this seems to be the reason behind the transfers of shares. Very few shares have been sold in the traditional sense, just transferred between related entities on market at times beneficial for the related party. Once it becomes clear that new stock is not available and that most of the trades are between related entities and also not available in bulk then the buy side may have attached to it a certain level of panic. My heart bleeds.
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