bros after doing the GOBBT ..... Grand Olympian Beijing Bar Tour...

bros after doing the GOBBT ..... Grand Olympian Beijing Bar Tour ... China is in full-time party mode while Rome burns ... might have to move there as the sun sets in the west hey. Better all start learning mandarin fast if u wanna communicate with the new masters of the world and last remaining bastion of free market capitalism as big bro socialism takes over the west methinks.

Anybody keeping tabs on the GORM these days ... we are there ... at the GORM megapivot 9500 - 9800 zone ... tho gotta say bit surprised how swiftly it capitulated straight to the lower end before short bounce to upper end and retest of the low again in a week ... sheesh and i was relying on u guys to hold it for me haha.

Well this is it ... thru here and no more denial the Megabear is here .... megabear C which most of u guys thought was mumbo jumbo. Its gotta bounce NOW or else capitulation wave will be bit like CMR's own from 160 level. Next major supports below DJIA 9500 are 7950-8150 and the the megabear "A" primary low of 7200 (set on Oct 12 2002). Actually anyone with a liking to Carolan might look at a further half down to 3600 as the end of "C" (?) Wont worry about that yet tho, lets ee if 9500 holds and if we have to worry about 7200 next.

Re CMR ... we are doing our own thing and MISSING the TIME WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY Q3 last year cos of severe LACK of Olympian qualities in our leaders' strategic planning and implementation abilities, means we have FAILED in Olympian ARK status and now are ME TOO in the survival stakes ... tho getting back to REALITIES ... we have already had our 90% wipe out from highs which the broader global markets possibly face to their natural end ala JAPAN ... the Japs are now in their final "E" wave down in pure deflation with NKY heading for an ultimate 4000 low IMO by about 2011-12 ... one full sine wave ahead of the rest. Buying MITSUBISHI and mates in 2012 might be the best L/T timing trick ahead of our financials which prob wont see bottom this side of 2013-2014. All the musings are in the GORM posted on July 1 2005 in here (in 4 parts).

So back to basics ... when megabear C debt implosion induced asset deflation wave is over hopefully by mid next year, we will be looking for rally wave C-4 or even primary E, and that will be printing press driven as they realise they gotta add a coupla ZEROS to their current drop in the bucket pseudo "bailout" package proposed ... more like another "we'll try and keep the ship afloat til we get the officers off first and every man for himself" conjob next maybe (?). So yeah cash is king for now ... but WHERE do u safely keep it ... have u checked the derivatives exposure of the Ozzie XBA lately ? It runs into numbers with 12 zeros following ...

So lets HOPE control is NOT lost and the EOTFWAWKI dosent arrive or we can all keep each other company in the soup dole queues talking about the good old days ...

I dont know which way short term from here and have no faith or trust in OP's ability to preserve my personal NPV .... megabear C is a case of RELATIVE wealth preservation ... how much are we gonna lose overall, RELATIVE to everyone else. Hence allowing for debt default DEFLATION now, MONETARY inflation ongoing and ACCELERATING later, mistrust of FINANCIAL SYSTEM including our "pillars of society" ... only down to 2 left in my mind then ultimatley reckon only ONE Highlander ... the RBA ... am sticking to my GORM NIL DEBT, only roof over the head RE, 50/50 cash/resources stox in the interim and hope Im gonna end up losing no more than half !!!

Sorry but dont subscribe to naked shorting on moral, ethical and karma grounds ... hope they keep a permanent BAN on this instrument of society DESTRUCTION that them with short sighted greed devised without a thought to what world they were creating for their children and grand children !!!

OK mid term expectations :

DJIA ... siedways 9500-9800 +/- a BIT before rally to 11300 now ORRRRR continue down to "A" wave low 7200 ... u can adjust the rest accordingly

USDX ... S/T rally continues maybe to 88 level as the conjob/RUSH to apparent safety of US treasuries continues, then downturn resumes to new lows below 72 ... 50 maybe ???

AUD ... told yas RBA would look after the mining industry ... but watch out when the Chinese refuse to honour their iron ore etc contracts next year ... Ozzie battler reached first target 0.72 ... reckon we will see 0.62 next and if things really get bad here ... and lets get REAL, our CAD/GDP has ALWAYS BEEN WORSE than the US and we cant print USD like they can to repay our USD DEBTS ... AUD is "doomed" (praise Zeus !!!) for the duration of the asset deflation stage (IMOOC). So who knows, retest of the 0.45 levels ultimatley ??? ... before the resources megabull saves us ... or will 0.65 or 0.55 be "it" ???

... tho GOLD is a different story. Checked out POG in AUD terms lately? New all time high at around 1250 atm. Same for Copper and other stuff ... nothing wrong if u dont have DEBT repayable in USD CASH !

Reckon RBA will move AUD in line with global COMMODITY PRICES to SAVE OUR PRIMARY EARNER ... THE MINING INDUSTRY !!!... so i dont expect much change in AUD-commodity prices during the asset deflation stage (except POG which should SOAR on other grounds)

BHP ... for Davfitz ... got to the 29 pivot once 34 broke hey? BHP remains the only global "bank" for mine but am personally still taking a risk with my 50% cash leaving it in which bank etc cos am risk/timing optimum entry and might still see the hedge fund panic sell off push the big ex Ozzie down to where it was a coupla years ago ... 22-24 ... and even LOWER ... 18 - 14? depending on how long and severe megabear C gets.

CMR ... what to say ... doubled my core holding around 52 pivot and saw that fail too with the original gap now being filled. Coupla thoughts ... the weak AUD will see POSITIVE cashflow from oxides starter operations and they recently signalled end of Cornell death spiral tho pity we should have given them that last 3 mill tranche of shares. MAYBE this time tho since they have been told cash from now on for repayments, they might decide to HOLD that last lot as core investment stock ... its obvious now they have been dumping each tranche to give them even more shares each consecutive time ... but now no more (?)

Further, CMR market cap is a FRACTION of its share of oxide plant capex ... which should be a decent postive cashflow producer from here ta to RBA ... so we are now IMO is a RIDICULOUSLY OVERSOLD EXTREME FIRSALE BARGAIN BUY PRICE ..... but that dont mean necessity of distressed holders wont keep pressure on it espesh if DJIA confirms continued downtrend and doesnt do its bounce now. So what can i say ... personally might have to double my core holding again if it continues lower. But thats PERSONAL and NOT advice. If they were Japs, they wouldave all done the honourable thing by now u would have thought haha ...

Other stox ... personally SLOWLY picking the eyes outa my resources faves with good resources / projects and hopefully olympian management sitting at UNDER unencumbered cash backing ... and enuff cash to ride out a two year danger period IMO whilst still doing their bit for shareholder value ahead. Not too many left now methinks. Theoretically CMR is still way ahead of the rest at current levels ... but Im biased and we need to see a reversal confirmation in both the broader markets and our own technos.

So recapping the main GORM rules for survive and (set-up for future) thrive

(1) why not (tho use this one sparingly in the megabear haha)
(2) olympians have no fear (ditto haha)
(3) assume/prepare for the worst and hope for the best
(4) debt is death cash is king in asset deflation waves

We are in unprecedented dangerous times cos never before has their been a "virtual" derivatives market bigger than physical by orders of magnitude ... hence something has to give ... and it should come with political leadership ala say, let the culprits go into self-destruct but protect the innocent bystanders and wipe the sheet clean for reset ... only prob is the culprits are firmly entrenched as high up as u can go IMO and they aint honourable like the Japs.

The key "canary in the coal mine" for global markets is the Jap market/economy which has been in pure deflation since 1991 ... hence the realtive strength of the JPY. They are one sinewave ahead of the rest on technos cos the rest failed to let nature take its course and follw them circa 1993 when the seeds of this current destruction were planted (well first planting was 1971 of course). This may all be part of a grand conspiracy to destroy the old system (with the usual middle class wipeout) so that true big brother globalisation replaces. Dont wanna delve into the religious / political / psychological reasoning of this suffice to say human greed is the common thread. Maybe a read of Thucydides' Peloponesian Wars might give some insights into the psychology of power implemetation ... tho personally prefer to learn enuff mandarin to get back into the GOBBT mode awy from all this psycho-ego crap being thrown around.

Good luck and look after yr backs and yr families FIRST bros and get back to what living is supposed to be about.

All above is PERSONAL musings/expectation and in my biased opinion (IMBOOC) ...... u always gotta do what suits u and yr circumstances.

PS ASian markets accelerating down atm ....