Just bought a ton of SRL!, page-7

Can I ask what your rationale is for the SP estimates? $4 to $5 on finance annc seems a bit low to me. The PEP estimated NPV of US$1.2b (AU$1.8b) for the project. Of course, things have changed since then. Capex will be higher, but this should be balanced against the increased scope of the project (i.e., Scandium, 32% potential increased production rate, increased resource due to other tenements, etc.). To make the calcs simpler, let's just assume the NPV of $1.8b and assume that SRL will own 50% of the JV company. A reasonable mcap would be $900m, which is $10 per share.

If we get FID before the end of the year, we can expect construction of the mine to be completed by end of 2026 and then ramp up to full production by end 2028. During operation of the mine, we can expect post-tax earnings of ~US$400m (according to the PEP). This means SRL's 50% share would be worth AU$300m per year. If we assume a PE ratio of 10 and no dilution, this gives a fair share price of $33.

Obviously, there are a lot of variables to consider and this is just a few quick and dirty calcs on my part. As always, DYOR.