re: just curious. agent.agree your diffidence abou Subject 2007...

re: just curious. agent.agree your diffidence abou Subject 2007 drill program
Stock Code NDO - NIDO PETROLEUM LIMITED
Posted 17/06/06 10:53
Posted by cotik
IP 138.217.xxx.xxx
Hotcopper Radio NDO on BoardRoom Radio
Post #1112099 - 147 reads
Start of thread

Dave’s comment at the AGM that they intended to drill a statistically significant number of wells was not just a throw away line in my opinion, it signaled a change in the intended drill program for 2007.

According to the Sydney presenataion on page 13 the number of wells drilled in the Palawan Basin has been 51 of these 33% have resulted in an oil discovery, so 67% have either been dry, minor oil shows, gas discoveries etc. Assuming that when Dave talks about statistically significant he is referring to the drilling already taken place in the Palawan Basin as the success rate here is much higher than in other parts of the world then we can calculate how many wells would constitute a “statistically significant” program.

I would think that he would be looking at a chance of failure at no more than 5% and possibly as low as 1%. This would give then a statistical chance of success of somewhere between 95% and 99%.
Where p = probability of success (oil discovery).
q = probability of failure (anything other than a commercial oil discovery).
n = number of wells need to achieve the required probability.

For 95% confidence interval

qn < 0.05
(0.67)n < 0.05
n = 7.48

Therefore they would need to drill a minimum of 8 wells.

For 98% confidence interval

qn < 0.02
(0.67)n < 0.02
n = 9.768

Therefore they would need to drill a minimum of 10 wells.


For 99% confidence interval

qn < 0.01
(0.67)n < 0.01
n = 11.499

Therefore they would need to drill a minimum of 12 wells.

So my best guess is that they are planning a drilling program for 2007 that will see somewhere between 8 and 15 wells drilled thought the Palawan Basin.
The question raised is how will they managed to fund such as extensive drill program and at the same time maintain a meaningful percentage of the blocks that the have an interest in…….. Now let me think…………
Now to work out what they intend to drill......


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Cotik,

thanks for recalling your old post.

i guess your figure is conservative, whereas my one is abit optimistic. im not sure if you included drilling in WL in your estimates.

lets not forget their drilling schedule for any potential ROD fields they may acquire in the meantime.