LUM 0.00% 2.3¢ lumacom limited

just my own views.

  1. 1,006 Posts.
    HI,
    Not a shareholder and no financial interest in LUM.

    Every year I look at numerous companies, did the same for LUM last year and 2003 2002 2001 2000.

    Decided to do LUM yesterday, following is my own view, do your own research.
    Don't trust or accept any number or assertion I have included. Confirm it for yourself.

    It is one thing to be excited about the sign being finished after 22 months from the initial announcement and what it means to the bottom line of the company.
    Another point after so many delays what state is the company left in when all is said and done ? What does it need to break even ? How much money is left ? Would it be able to fund another sign without another placement ?

    Being a visual prop, I have found in the past when a shareholder can see the product it leads them more to believe it is economic rather than what the accounts tell.

    Most followers of LUM come from Perth. Home of the only long time operating sign in Australia ... possibly the world ... is Barcelona still on ?
    Anyhow, Gross income from this visual aid, before any costs last time I looked were in total $38,000- per annum After costs well .... even direct costs would have been less than 30% ... let alone the 350k per month costs of running LUM in the last 3 months.

    Probably glad I don't come from Perth. Most followers of LUM where are they from ?
    Perth.

    Hard to separate the emotion from reality.


    I am sure their might be some ballyhoo when they finish and it works.

    Hopefully they will have removed the massive crack in the panels running down the Lion Kings nose. Not sure the Disney logo has a crack in the Lion Kings face ?

    For others, please just go re read both releases by LUM for the both the deals.
    Then look hard at the accounts.
    I just did for 6 months to DEC 2004.

    What income if any was received from any operating sign ?
    What happened to Barcelona ? Even Perth has disappeared ? Or are both now contained in the $31,944- income number ? Boy ... both have to be in this number, there is no where else for it in the accounts. The orders are clearly in another section.

    Be harsh.
    Look at announcements on 12/6/2003, 27/2/2003 and 4/9/2003 for background.
    Was Barcelona meant to be NET income of $800k to $1 mio ?
    Announcement 27/2/2003 I think and mentioned again I think when it was turned on in the middle of 2003. So in total 2003 the income of both Perth and Barcelona was only 168 K and this is not net but gross. Barcelona in reality after costs ... well ... u work it out.

    When I look at the cash burn rate plus more installation costs then taking the cash position end of DEC adding the placement of shares and then the options exercised ...... hmmmm

    March quarter will be out end of April so not too long to wait.

    Do not forget the 2.5 million options that will undoubtedly be exercised like last time if the price goes much beyond 12 cents.

    Normally I would keep thinking even myself surely with the share loosing 85% of its value there must be some level it is worth something, not here for me.

    That been said I have been wrong before and expect to be in the future. However after spending the best part of 3 hours again revisiting the LUM picture .... please just be careful.

    I know for myself I am not inspired by confidence when the Turkey deal is announced and claims US$3- million in total, $1- million being rent and the remainder being split, I just go back to the Barcelona announcement and read that with reference back to the actual income of what appears less than 100,000 before costs as opposed to the announced NET income after expenses of between 800k and 1 million. So before expenses the income coming in should have totaled say 1.1 million to 1.4 million P/A. This was for the first year of operation 2003/4. The numbers for 2004/5 appear to be even worse. If the sign is so good and the deal so good why wouldn't it work in say Perth just as well as Barcelona ? Let alone as in NY and Turkey as is planned ?

    Best of Luck to all
 
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