Hi guys and girls,
Many thanks for all your comments.
My views regarding Fidelity are just my own opinion. Fidelity is one of the largest and most respected fund managers in the USA. If you look at when they initially started buying and became a substantial holder and then announced increases and then go back and look at the chart it shows just how much they were buying on the quick rise we saw from $1.10 to above $2.00. The initial announcement in May when they became a substantial holder with 28 million shares suggests they had been buying for some time. It reached a peak of 39.4 mio shares in early August. Then the announcement on the 8/10 they had drastically reduced to just over 30 mio shares ... In other words they had cut just over 25% of the position by then. To me that suggests maybe they have reduced even more and hence the pressure I felt it would put on the HDR price.
One other topic of discussion I didn't bring up was the decision of the Mauritanian government to exercise its option. Personally my model and every other one I have been able to study already had taken that into account when working out valuations. When the field was declared commercial back in January 2004 it was ma forgone conclusion they would exercise. No one in their right mind wouldn't. Buying an asset worth around $1,500 for $70 mio was always going to happen. Value of the field has now gone up with my presumed upgrades in reserves and should come in much higher than the January number.It is not all bad since the government has to pay penalties to get its share but of course brings down the partners shares accordingly. Haven't seen an official announcement but its expected and was another factor I left out when discussing the fall in the HDR price.
Anyhow all the best to holders
Good luck
HDR
hardman resources limited
