Q3 last year i also felt this Lazer, it was an extremely gut...

Q3 last year i also felt this Lazer, it was an extremely gut wrenching feeling. Having put 15k of my 40k life savings (im only 26 and i party a LOT :)) into VIL and another 10k into 5 solid ASX 200 coy's. This represented money i could(should) have put on a house deposit.

I know, immediate thoughts are... idiot. Why put most of your investing eggs into one highly spec basket?? Well i was delusional and new to the market and thats just what happened. I didnt invest 15k all at once but rather averaged down from 4.1c to 3.2c.

So to genuinely believe that after FP1 failed the company would be bust in a few months time was really quite depressing, i even researched the potential tax breaks i would get from this loss.

However since then my belief in the company has morphed somewhat. I am certainly now a LOT wiser when it comes to O&G spec stocks (this comes from fervently researching AFTER investing in VIL...)So now I no longer believe i am going to make 10 fold my investment in the next year (avg price of 3.2c). That was a tough one to swallow being an optimistic person by nature. However along with this knowledge i also no longer believe that the company will go bust any time soon. This was a relieving feeling as not making money wasnt as worrying as losing money, thats for sure.

Enough of that though, you want to know WHY i dont think they will go bust.

Quite simply, currently they should be making more than they are spending. I cant think of a company in such a situation dissolving as it goes against the fundamentals of economics.

Refer to Post #: 6094612 - We tried to work out what the annual revenue and costs of the company was, this was directly as a result of my concern about said feelings. It was hotly debated about wether or not VIL recieved the spot price for oil or not. Beleive101 stated that he contacted the company and was assured that VIL did infact recieve the spot price. If this is the case then VILS net revenue is approx $1.7m (i feeel this is a conservative estimate as i like to err on the side of caution when making such calculations. It does not include any gas production from Bongo and assumes the revenue from Bullseye and silverwood are reduced from previous estimates.)

Prior to Bongo flow rates being released, there was an Ann that stated VIL's then current net revenue being 600k and running costs being 500k. However i cannot find that info in the Anns i have scrawled through today so cannot verify exactly where that was stated. I am unsure if this took into account revenue received from Bongo as it was JUST prior to the Bongo flow rates ann, i do beleive. I AM an optimistic person though so i think it doesn't :)

Either way the end result is the same. VIL currently is earning more than it is spending, so no. It will not go bust just yet IMHO.

Without sounding like im ramping, i honestly beleive if you D&D and research the company now is a good time to buy. Simply because at 1.4c the worst case scenario has pretty much been factored in already, with the exception to greatly reduced updated Bongo flow rates. However Bongo only raised the SP for a few days and then it went back to where it was prior to factoring Bongo in so following that logic im not even sure if such news would lower the SP much. Historically speaking this stock will rise during the spudding of Sidi. Between now and then we cant get any negative news so the chance of losing money is slim to none. If i was not invested in VIL at all i would buy now and sell on the hype Sidi will bring. It wont be as bouyant as the FP hype however i reckon it will raise it a few .01's of a cent. A nice 20% profit or so on just hype alone IMHO.

And so here i sit, debating whether or not i should invest another 5k at 1.4c averaging down to 2.4c which sounds like a more short term plausible break even exit strategy than 3.2c. However 20k in one spec stock seems like a crazy idea... i am a little crazy however... and knowing me if it hits 2.4c in the next 2 months (highly possible with the farmed out (no CR) spudding of FP2) then i'll hold in the hope it will reach 4.8c and so on and so forth :)

Please take my comments with a grain of salt. All information provided was researched by myself and may be greatly flawed.

Thanks