Just Saying!, page-105

Like everyone else I can only guess who is behind the selling - there could be some large retail holder or holders but whatever the trigger, once some momentum devekops then it can become an avalanche which like a real one can be hard to stop.

The SP was in a modest rising channel following the low which formed on May 2nd (1st arrow) following the 4C  pullback on April 26th.  IMO this pullback is about the reaction or over reaction to the 4C on  July 26th. The subsequent 4C pullback broke through trend line support and bottomed on July 28th, then rose to hit the trend line on August 1st, the day of the shareholder newsletter (which looked ok).  There was some selling, either technical or on the news but probably due to both. In any case the trend line turned into resistance and this is where the snowball started to roll.

Now so far the SP has pulled back 18.8% from the 53 cent close at the low on July 25th to the 43 cent close last night. IMO it is mainly momentum based triggered by the confluence of the newsletter and technicals when the trendline turned into resistance (2nd arrow).  It is likely that the state of the market influenced by a string of geopolitical issues has helped to kick this pullback along. Yesterday Bluescope fell 20% in a single day despite the excellent result.

I don't know where this is going to settle, the long lower tailed candle yesterday is a good sign but I don't know whether there are still some sellers yet to roll over, I didn't think it would would get this far, I thought it looked like bottoming around 45 cents a few days ago but there were still a few dumps to come obviously. This is the market in action, I am not losing any sleep over this.

Daily COB August 21st.