Just Saying!, page-148

morning,

well,

IMO -- orders filled, billed and paid will do the trick

and, news of that comes twice a year - like every other company.


We may hear of larger contracts - but, one has to get one's head around what a 'contract' is in this game -

have a cuppa and think on this one little term --

Alexium sells -------------- 'consumables'

so - one might want to think through what exactly a 'contract' means for a company that sells consumables.

Normally - it means - ok, we agree to use you and we reckon we will use 100 buckets a year-

and, we sign something so that we both understand that.


A take or pay license is quite different -

that means that we sign an agreement to buy a minimum of chemical per year with an estimate on what we think we will use per year and give you 'enter dollars here' per year - and we pay you this upfront -

whether we use that amount of chemical or not - you keep the licence fee. (they vary a bit - but that's about the guts of it)


So, as to an order book moving the shareprice - well, unless we get some sort of special order - like a historically high one or similar - we probably won't hear about it -

until we see a full revenue for the half in either the half report or the full year report

the only 'orders missed there' will be orders that are in at the last days that haven't been filled and hence invoiced (normally) - they won't show on revenue because no invoice has been raised -

they 'might' get a mention if they are whoppers though. (even then, sometimes the client wants to be invoiced before delivery - it happens)


IMO - both this mornings webinar, the full year prelim report and the webinar following the release of that report are absolutely critical for Alexium shareholders to sit back with a clear head and listen - make notes, discuss - to see where we are, and where we are going.

IMO - finally, we might get a real handle on exactly what this company is worth -

I am not going to second guess how the SP will react - in the medium term -- say over 6 months or so -

short term guessing is hard enough - normally, one would expect a rise on sentiment - but, we shall see - a market isn't as trustworthy on that these days.

Unless these boys come on this morning and say - arrh, this game is too hard - we are going to recommend that we buy a gold mine and give up chemistry - then, for me - I strongly suspect that I will be maintaining my buy sentiment - and, I will raise my position when I think the SP is at lows and I will adjust it downwards when I think it might be ahead of itself -
if my sentiment on the actual business changes - one will see that in my sentiment showing on HC.

The last couple of days I was tied up and I thought that we would get SP movement - but, I decided to not do anything - because I just couldn't keep my eye on it - just quick looks at the sp and HC

had I have had the time - I know for sure that I would have been tempted yesterday - indeed, at times I was - and, both Parsifal and I think it's cheap relative to a lot of other stocks.

We have this hobby where we think it's a good idea to buy when things are low and sell when they are high ------------- bit radical for some I know - but, there you go.

have a great morning - I am assuming I will get to see this live - as Parsifal has registered - we shall see what the morn brings.


Pinto