My notes, with every attempt at accuracy....but please DYOR as always. NO recommendation for any action to be taken.
POV105
Known Intersections from POV1 = POV105 100 metres away.
TD 4140 metres
Secondary Objective 1 (SO1)= Shallow Oil from ~710 metres to 775 metres for ~20 metres
Secondary Objective 2 (SO2)= Gas Shows between 2700 metres & 3460 metres (for 700 metres of gas shows)
Primary Objective (PO)= Gas at 3900 metres for an 18 metre reservoir at shut in 5100psi formation 10500psi (100BCF to 370BCF P50)
M4 untested.
My Notes: (in no particular order and time frames assumed as expected only)
Other wells have shown the primary to exceed 50 metres interval.
TD extending a further 240 metres into M4 sands
(capable of deeper)
SO1 target time = 12 days after spud (announcement indictor)
SO2 target time = 35 to 50 days after spud (progressive) (announcement indicator)
PO target time = 60 to 65 days (allow for casing and logging etc on the way down)
Testing target time = 65 to 75 days
Production Testing = ~100 days complete
POV2 showing oil seeps and never tested. (**Even a token 100 bopd would be a cherry on top).
POV3 also showing condensate leaking.
>http://aleatorenergy.com.au/video_gallery
>http://aleatorenergy.com.au/gallery?gallery_category=209
Only the M3 sands are used to calculate the possible OGIP.
POV105 similar intersections to POV2 (shallow), would indicate a very large FIELD Block Resource (Shale Gas)
Lead items purchased = Yes
Staff allocated = Yes
Drill Rig = LOI, awaiting Contract signing on receipt of funds
Drill rig ready to go = Yes
Funds (Syndicate) = expected within next few days (2 million to remain as deposit with Fund Managers, this may (r) may satisfy the 1.5 million balance for GRES loan, otherwise it will be allocated from the remaining 3 million euros.
Last placement issue done at .011
End of September buying in volume (pointed out by Rosy) = Price was .009-012 = Syndicate buying? If so, expect SP to be pushed higher on confirmation, and also higher than last issue price.
Funds 2 (GRES) = 10 days from Syndicate Funds receipt (note, international bank days) + 5 days for transfer.
Spud Date = Expect tentative announcement on confirmation of GRES proceeding (Estimate Dec 2013 spud)
Drilling capable = Excellent rig, capable of /if required to extend play past TD.
Production = couldn’t get any better with location and tie-in to production facilities. 10/10 for infrastructure.
Production time frame upon success = Excellent
Management – New Team, capable and experienced.
Management Remuneration = Acceptable at this stage. Note: Reduced costs & far cheaper than previous management, with greater outputs evident. (bring home the financing team)
Basic SP appreciation at milestones (Finance and Spud) (Conservative & Ranged) = exceed multiple times current SP .02/025/029
Options in the money @.02 cps (in the money value to Company = ~$26 million)
Early indicators (Shallow Oil & Secondary Gas indicators) = .035 cps
Success on testing (conservative) = upwards of 600% on current SP @008 = .048 cps (MC
On production (balanced) = upwards of 800% on current SP = .064 cps (mid end P50 outcome)
High end estimate (High End) on Production and further acquisition potential .08 to .10 cps
Future Finance on Success = Excellent prospects to DEVELOP Production/Producing FIELD Status (Banking Sector Probable)
Future Allocation by Ukrainian Government = Excellent potential
3rd degree contingency planning – Yes
Future Licenses = Looking at 2nd & 3rd licenses
Consolidation = I’m not for it, gains relative, most consolidations reduce SH value
Director Buying = Last June 2013 for 9,500,000 shares
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