just speculating (mel version)

This is substantially the same as my post on another forum thread. Apologies for the repetition.

Make sure you take this with a grain of salt. I'm an optimist and bullish about CSG in Queensland and NSW.

The CSG industry in Queensland is powering on and LNG will be exported from Queensland. It can't be stopped now with State and Federal government support. Environmental concerns will only help to ensure the industry focuses on health and safety all the way.

I am certain there will be mishaps and news beat-ups regardless of how hard the industry tries to prevent accidents and problems. Lets hope there will be very few.

The NSW CSG players are less advanced than Queensland but as an optimist, I believe common sense will prevail and the NSW industry will eventually flourish.

Now to MEL.

I'm assuming here that MEL achieves commercial flow rates from its CSG fields and proves up a substantial convetional reserve.

I'm drawing from some great posts this week and here's the speculation.

LNG Ltd is now in cahoots with the CNPC subsidiary taking 19.9% and its appears an equal say in the company's management. I'm just going to call the CNPC sub "H" from hereon.

H clearly is interested in the OSMR technology and has the opportunity to participate in a near to start pilot project.

LNG ltd plans a 3 million tpa LNG plant at Fisherman's Landing requiring 120PJ per annum. I've also speculated before that LNG may also be interested in the adjacent Sojitz block at Fisherman's Landing. Is 4.5 mtpa possible from FLLNG? Some time off but possible.

In my view CNPC is the real player that will determine the fate of MEL and the Clarence Moreton basin.

As pointed out by several posters on this forum, Arrow (Shell Petrochina) has tenements in the CM basin. CNPC is parent of H and tiny Petrochina.

Will Arrow or LNG Ltd takeover MEL?

I don't think LNG Ltd would be interested in taking on the upstream development of MEL. They'll have enough trouble building Fisherman's Landing and keeping capital cost under control.

As for Arrow, I think they may be interested in acquiring MEL but given their interests in Queensland and my speculation in relation to BOW, I believe the FIRB may stand in their way.

With that in mind though, I think Arrow is the ideal farminee for MEL for the following reasons:

Arrow has tenements in the Clarence Moreton basin. MEL is planning to build the Lions Way pipeline and wants to pump gas up to FLLNG in Gladestone.

The more gas going north from the CM basin, the more feasible NSW gas to Gladestone becomes.

Obviously, LNG Ltd needs gas for FLLNG. LNG Ltd is tied up with H, a subsidiary of CNPC.

The thing to keep in mind is that Arrow, LNG Ltd and H will probably be working concert. Behind the scenes though.

LNG Ltd is planning to draw supply from Queensland and NSW. I think LNG Ltd will enter a GSA with Arrow and take gas from Arrow fields assuming FLLNG comes on line before Arrow's Curtis Island project.

LNG Ltd enters a GSA with MEL for supply to FLLNG.

Arrow farms in to MEL's PEL 16 and in conjunction develops its interests in the CM basin sharing infrastructure with MEL including the Lions Way pipeline.

Eventually, MEL supplies both FLLNG and Arrow into Curtis Island. MEL will have GSA's with both LNG Ltd and Arrow.

MEL's conventional reserves will hopefully play a key role during the ramp up phase of both FLLNG and Arrow's Curtis Island.

Arrow's Queenland supply to FLLNG reduces as supply is replaced by MEL. Supply from Arrow's Queensland tenements are then redirected to Curtis Island.

Arrow (Shell/Petrochina) now has supply from several fields in Queensland and NSW.

Any and all alternative speculation is welcome.