Keep calm and carry on is the motto for all holders until the EPA permit is issued imo. Some newer posters are picking up what the market has known for some time, funding risk doh!
Nothing will happen over the Xmas break. Nothing is likely to happen until the EPA permit is issued with associated agreed environmental and community concessions agreed. The data room is good as closed most likely, an overnight gold short squeeze won't suddenly bring a raft of new suitors out of the wood work. It's important to understand how long structured sales of mining projects often take. Min Resources took 6 months in a competitive environment to sell 50% of Wodgina for a massive $1.5B top of market. Months of DD including on-site visits, lots of tyre kicking and interest shown but little concrete action as buyers play it cool. Buyers hold all the cards, can justify holding back on negotiations so long as the EPA related permits are outstanding. Time reduces competitive tension, lowers price expectations, increase pressure on CDV but ultimately value will play it's part in an outcome.
CDV cannot call a hard bid submission deadline without atleast two credible bidders. It would lead to an embarrassing non-outcome and damage the sales effort. Best they can do is tick over with negotiations and DD, get the best project level finance deal lined up and wait for all the green lights for bid deadline and see what they can shake out. Any JV partner will likely use the project specific finance deal CDV lines up after much project specific DD has been done by finance groups. Arranging project finance does not preclude a JV, or TO, or mean that such finance cannot be walked away from. Finance is run in parallel with corporate sale actions and in no way means corporate action is dead. Corporate action is simply delayed and dragging out.
If the delay in finalising corporate M&A doesn't cause stress then you don't have much invested. Nobody is comfortable with the waiting and worry of no corporate deal getting done, why would you? Only a few fools or optimists believed that a deal would be done quickly without the EPA permit finalised. Same people who think a deal will be done around US$200/Oz.Yes it's uncomfortable but the risk and discomfort is priced in at 29c, especially unless the gold price falls further which thankfully it doesn't look like doing. The more time goes by the closer to an EPA permit and traction on the sale process we get. The closer to a sale process we get while forming a share price base at 29c the happier I am. Bottoms are for accumulating not capitulating.
Namdini is worth US$135/Oz reserve or US$165/Oz recoverable production at gold $1400 and NPV5%. No strategic price premium, just basic economiucs. For US$125M a partner would be buying 50% of Namdini for US$60/Oz production, or US$50/Oz Reserve, a pretty handy discount and great leverage to a rising gold price. That would leave CDV worth A$160M after Sprott loan repaid plus 50% of Namdini, or 32c/share cash backing plus US350M or $1/share of Namdini NPV5%. Obviously Namdini would be discounted for mine build over 2 years and Africa risk but clearly CDV shares would be trading around 60c pretty soon. Is US$50/Oz of Reserve too much to ask? Clearly not in many posters view and imo a bargain buy for a larger company, although a disappointing outcome for many.
What would be the equivalent market CR to end up with A$1.30 theoretical EV? CDV need to raise A$175M at 45c/share to end up with a total value/share of $1.30 (18c cash and $1.13 Namdini) after repay Sprott, which ain't going to happen. At 25c CR another 700M shares would be issued, for a total of 1.2B shares. Each share would have 13c cash backing and 83c worth of NAMDINI npv5%.... 96C total vale/share and well short of the above JV deal. In fact CDV would have to sell 50% of the project for ~US$80M, or $15/Oz reserve or $18/Oz production to end up with a similar value/share to a large raising at 25c. Even then CDV would have a theoretical value of $1.11 because 50% of Namdini is worth 96c by itself. A JV sale or TO makes so much more sense than a CR it beggars belief Archie would go the CR route.
Archie chose to take out a Sprott loan in 2018 when the share price was high 40's instead of doing a CR. What an embarrassing failure if after 18 months, a US$200 rise in gold price, finalised DFS etc if he now raises that A$35M at 20 odd cents instead to repay the loan (before interest). He has to do one or the other before the end of 2020, has no real choice. The only way for Archie to save any face and keep his job is to clinch a corporate funding deal that repay's Sprott loan and also funds CDV share of namdini. For this reason, assuming he is not a complete crook, I believe CDV is forced to conclude a corporate deal. Competitive tension or lack of it will determine what price is paid. Goldfields is sitting pretty doing nothing and watching Archie sweat.
Meanwhile, best thing to do is except that the risk, the bad news, the stress and delayed EPA has shaken out most weak hands leaving the share price bouncing bottom along bottom with a highly asymmetrical payoff to the upside. What are the odds nobody wants Namdini at any price verses Archie will put long suffering shareholders to the sword with a low 20's CR? Relax that corporate funding will take time and test holders faith. Christmas is the season of hope!
Merry Christmas
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