Twice now I have called that SWE may well see the 30-39 cents range as a pit stop.
I still hold this view, but would like to clarify that it is "just a call", and even I have no idea whether I will be correct (but certainly hope I am).
So please look on this post as non-hyped, research and forecast based opinion ONLY!! I plead with potential investors and traders to do your own research.
It is impossible for me to substantiate my thoughts as fact and reiterate, this is an opinion, not posted as a definite....I do not read tea-leaves, and don't have a crystal ball.
I made this call whilst researching SWE, and after/during and continuing to watch a couple of other shares as they appreciated. I have then gone back and checked a few timelines, including sentiment on particular days here on HC of those shares.
What became clear to me was that there can be a pattern. I think this pattern is all about value and clearly defined entry points and or rules of entry. Value increases, sales/sellers decrease. Obvious some might say...well not until it actually happens...but by then its late for maximum profit potential realization...But a profit none-the-less is still attainable.
Price appreciation = Confidence.
Big money and/or larger net worth individuals and organisations do not carry the same "want to be rich quick" mentality that most hotcopperites will hold...They are happy to buy a little higher, if confidence is higher....larger the investment, higher returns, so a few cents in early appreciation means nothing to them (subjective).
Therefore as the companies I have been monitoring current and recent past activity around their larger appreciation jumps, I note that they have come off the back of smaller confidence signaling rises which have then stablalised....(I use stabilize because consolidation doesn't fit...i.e sit with low volume trading until the jump comes...can hardly call that consolidation)
What I have seen, and was harder to figure out was, were the small confidences rises based on news released, or on news expected....very hard to distinguish...but think there is correlation to a little of both....but the volumes indicated that in any regard, the news warranted that after release buyers outweighed the pre release buyers hugely....resulting in the larger appreciation jumps....
Again, some, even I, would say that's obvious...well yes, in hindsight it is...but picking it in advance, and staying with the story is where profits are maximized.
Another striking point was that not all the news was expected, some was, but others were not....
We have been lucky to receive some good news this week, unexpected (Finance deal), and some better than expected news, Kilombero.
We are also catching up on other news Kilosa Kidatu too, as the big picture is forming and confidence is increasing due to this.
We are also in the enviable position of not only knowing that more news is to come....BUT more than one, more than two, more than 3 pieces....possibly 5 or 6 pieces by the end of the year...or early next year.
That's almost something a week. This is where/why I see confidence...(don't hold me to this, might be nothing one week, then 2 in a week following, but you know what I mean...interest, confidence will be maintained and hopeful increase)
Add to that, that expectations are pointing to positive news, on most counts.....the big IF one for me is Zambia (Just 1 license is all we need, others a bonus that's for sure)....its still possible we wont get any....but then we do have lots on our plate already, and I haven't added any value for Zambia yet anyway....Well I did add $1.00 so it was on my list :)
I believe our HCopperite expectations are high, but do not think that expectations are over the top or being over extended at 26.5 cents per share....and have a lot of room to move yet before realizing fair value.
So it is 30 cents that I see the confidence signal being given by smaller buyers, to the larger buyers....hence a quick jump through the 30's....to where I don't know :)
Then back again to expected news...the amount of news in anticipated period....and you end up with a loaf in the oven cooking to perfection.
With all this taken into account....this is why I believe that the 30's will be the pit stop, prior to moving into the 40's....after that....sorry, cant call it....but have high hopes :)
We saw it yesterday...which gave me even more confidence I may be right....No-one listed shares for sale in the 30's...this would be very strange to have a 10 cent or more gap....Who wants to sell at 31 cents, only to see the Share price jump to 45 with a week or two or three following the sell at 31....value is, what is value.
Unknown Territory :)
With around ~12% of the companies tradable shares traded in the last 2 days....add to that what's in safe hands holding....you can see why there's none for sale in the 30's yet.
Unknown Territory...and bodes well :)
So will I be blowing my Hotcopper horn and flag waving....with a loaf of warm bread, butter and marmite
Or
Will I be sentenced to spending my days only on the politics thread with my tail between my legs :)
Have a great day.
SWE Price at posting:
26.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
