FAR 5.10% 51.5¢ far limited

just to make things clear......

  1. 1,664 Posts.
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    The success of the last appraisal well steps out the resource 5km to the north east. Expect a significant increase in resource.

    Current resource is 2c @ 561m = FAR 15% = 84m barrels of oil

    FAR market cap is $260m USD and if we strip out cash EV is $200m USD

    84m barrels = $3 USD per barrel

    FAR stated that sometime during 3/4 this year they should declare the field commercial. This significantly changes its worth as 1) its bankable 2) big oil companies have a very different internal approach to commercial oil fields v exploration. As we know all exploration budgets are cut with current POO. We hear Conoco Philips is fast tracking the appraisal wells to get the field commercial so they can move the Senegal asset from exploration into commercial. Conoco Philips are selling all of their offshore exploration assets to keep shareholders happy.....hence why they want to move it fast.

    Commercial oil in the ground is worth $10, even in the current environment. As this field is low capex and low quartile for lift cost. They are thinking lift cost for Senegal is approx. low $30s & this means spot oil right now makes good $$$$

    Current resource FAR is worth 3x more. As market cap price right now is $3 per barrel and commercial oil is around $10. Remember this does not include any worth to when the size of the resource is upgraded or any other of FARs assets.

    If POO holds in or even goes higher, FAR becomes a serious target considering the AUD market cap / price per barrel in the ground. The fun and games I predict will start to happen after the field is deemed commercial. And hopefully that is sometime 3/4.
 
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