Been away working in Asia - but in obviously in touch through HC...

Been away working in Asia - but in obviously in touch through HC on the current thoughts of posters regarding Lynas. Some great posts and only 3 on ignore - so thanks guys.

I've been trying to get straight in my mind just exactly who or what is really the major influence on our rather erratic SP. From a chemist's point of view I have posted before about what I had believed to be the most difficult task facing Lynas - not the marketing and pre-selling of product - not the digging out of the ground of raw REEs - not the concentration plant at Mt Weld - it's the LAMP plant in Malaysia! As the news about its status is still very positive I would have thought this is the last major hurdle.

It really is a hurdle - I can't emphasize enough how difficult the literally 100s of chemical steps in the process(es) are - and that doesn't include the possible production of semi-processed alloys that combine rare earths with other materials - the so called "tailor-made" products that would be so much more valuable for Lynas to sell.

Over the next couple of years it will cost nearer a billion dollars US for another company to set up from scratch what Lynas is doing in Malaysia ... so the importance of the LAMP is critical. It will not surprise me if more money is needed and that there will be some delays (hopefully not too long)in getting it "right". The latest news from Japan may help here. Around that time (later next year) there may well be some SP reaction.

BUT - I'm wrong! It's not whatever Lynas is doing (or not doing)- I strongly believe our SP is pretty well totally in the hands of the JP Morgans and Deusche Banks of this world.
As large institutional buyers and sellers - as well as the sources of highly valued Broker Reports - how can they lose in a relatively small stock like Lynas in a very small stock market like Australia? We are just the mugs that play around the edge of their much larger game! Luckily many of us are BUY and HOLD for this stock and are saved somewhat from the gamers.

I couldn't believe when working in the US some time ago - how powerful and influential were the big merchant banks/stock broking houses like the Morgan Stanleys were. Many fringe stocks seem to live or die on their prognostications. So for really positive share price action I reckon we will have to wait till these large international broking houses have finished with their games and then announce something we all knew - that Lynas is a great buy and we should all be buying up to $2.25! Then they can start their cycle again - and move into the 3rd quarter of a 4 quarter match. I've given up using any of the normal news and metrics of trying to put a value on this stock - I'll just wait for the Broker upgrades!

Sorry about the rambling post - I think its mainly therapy for me - but I've got to do something whilst the plane I'm on sits on the tarmac for the past 80 minutes.

As always GL and DYOR (but maybe wait for the upgrades - it will save a lot of time).