Here's my figs in a little more detail, so you can see where I'm coming from...
Production this quarter:
Tonnes milled 124,000 in April, 142,000 in May (from RUI presentation) and say 150,000 (capacity) in June = 416kt total.
Average grade 1.6 g/t
Recovery 94%
Production estimate = 416,000 x 1.6 x 0.94 / 31.1035 = 20,115 oz
Costs
AISC coming in at A$1,395 for June qtr, all based on the admittedly pretty broad-brushed assumptions below.
March data from the April 28 release.
Hope the table shows okay...
Column 1
Column 2
Column 3
Column 4
Column 5
0
March
March
June
Comments
1
A$/oz
A$ m
A$ m
2
3
C1 cash costs
1,123
16.8
16.4
See below
4
Royalties
99
1.5
2.0
Increases with production/sales
5
Corporate costs
38
0.6
0.7
Up 30% QoQ (its rounded)
6
Capitalised pre-stripping costs
441
6.6
4.4
Assume down one-third QoQ
7
UG sustaining costs
301
4.5
4.5
Assume flat QoQ
8
Total AISC
29.9
28.1
9
Production oz
14,920
20,115
10
AISC/oz
2,002
1,395
11
Cash costs (top 3 items)/oz
1,260
953
Hmm.. not sure they'll do <1,000 cash costs... might have another look there
12
C1 cash costs assume 10% fixed (A$1.68m), 90% variable and mostly driven by the stripping ratio…
13
Stripping ratio falls from 15:1 March quarter to 10:1 June quarter.
14
C1 cash costs = (fixed 1.68 + variable (16.8x0.9) x 11/16 (lower strip ratio) x 20,115/14920 (higher production)) *1.05,
15
all increased by 5% QoQ because… well let's be conservative….
Anyway, that's how I'm looking at it.
Let see...
Cheers!
BLK Price at posting:
25.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
