Yes, thanks, I was looking into potential reasons for the selldown and put my finger on this as being the likely driver.
I think they have $2.4b headroom, so I guess a loss of $2b wouldn't trigger covenants? I wonder why they had a book value of $6 in the presentation - It must have just been the JV's book value.
I have a dodgy non-look through BS gearing calc that gives them a ratio of 40%. Factoring in a $2b hit that would go up to 49% - which is where I find a few 8-10PE companies in my spreadsheet. So assuming the worst on the JV, and that the asset market remains depressed, I would expect at least forward npat of around $200-300m to be near the bottom at this price.
A recent report indicated underlying profit to be around $450m. Is it likely to remain over 400m in the coming year/s? if so, a bottom might be close regarless of the JV outcome?
Only technical concern I might have is the lack of a panic dump bottom.
GPT Price at posting:
40.8¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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