I pretty much remove the whole JV thing completely when I try...

I pretty much remove the whole JV thing completely when I try and make sense of their tangled mess. Im not too worried about the JV covenatns though - because all that debt is "non-recourse"...

I wrote this stuff (below) pre results - I havent had the time to digest the results and announcements... I don't think I was too far off... I estimated $1.26 - $1.45 / share NTA - and they came out with $1.43 post announcement... anyway lets have a look:

Based on their recent market update and last reported assets of 14bn, debt of 4.7b we have:

Write-down of 700m hit on the Europe JV, and 450m hit on core assets and 250m on other assets. Lets call it 1.4b in total.

They also announced a paper loss of 900m on derivatives and various hedges - but are at pains to point out that this does not affect any of their covenants. Im not quite sure how to account for it, other than take it off equity for the purpose of NTA calcs, and I will ignore it for the purpose of gearing% calcs.

Assets: 14bn
Writedowns: 1.4bn
Debt: 4.7bn

Net Assets: 14 - 1.4 - 4.7 = 7.9b
Equity Adjustment: 0.9b
Equity: 7b

Gearing = 4.7/(14-1.4) = 37.3%
They are saying its closer to 33% so we'll have to see their accounts when they come out...

NTA = about 7bn / 4bn shares = 1.75 and then apply their cap rate of 50bps lowers it to about $1.52.

Personally, I think wipe off all of the BNB JV... which takes a further 1.2b off assets making the calc something like: 5.8b /4b shares = $1.45, and apply cap rate of 50bps gives about $1.26.

Doesn't seem to matter at the moment - noone will really believe their valuations - the proof of value is a buyer for current assets - when they find that buyer and announce a sell price, we'll know if the 11% writedowns they are quoting are full of hot air. I personally believe that assets are 20-30% less than they are valued at.

Nonetheless, I also believe there is ALOT more than 0.45c / share of value in the stock. I think at least $1 by any rational valuation I am able to perform.