k winter......is the worst yet to come, page-9

Hmmmm, I've been thinking....and I know I shouldn't as that can get very depressing.

Many months ago I suspected that this crash was a 1907/1937/1973 event. On that basis I had expected all along that the DOW would lose near 50% off it's peak....or in other words give up 100% of the 2002-2007 bull gain....

......but what if indeed Kondratieff is correct ?? What if this is now the beginning of the winter phase ?? what if this is a 3 year collapse a la 1929 ??

I started to analyze the long term DOW charts for possible targets. Just because the DOW retraced 89% in 1929-1932 does not mean we will mimic that exactly.....but you may expect something in that neighbourhood of horribleness. SO I started with a fib 161.8% retrace of the 2002-2007 bull.

2002 low....7178
2007 high....14280
target......DOW = 2789

now looking to see if that level has any long term significance on the chart.....shudder !!! Is it just me or did it suddenly get cold in here ??