kalahari up

Kalahari rose a decent 9.5p to 253p on average volume (453k shares) on Friday.

Kalahari is now at a 12.8% discount to CGNPC's proposed offer of 290p. This discount is about the same as the percentage (12.3%)Rosatom reduced its offer for Mantra Resources by after the Fukukshima Daiichi reactors were damaged.

At its closing price on Friday, EXT is trading at a discount of around $0.50 to that implied by the Kalahari sp.

From all that I've read, I've formed the view that the Chinese will likely stick with their original offer for Kalahari and that it will be extended to all Extract shareholders on equivalent terms.

But what about RIO? Will they come over the top of CGNPC once they formalise their offer by May 3, or will they be content to just do a joint venture deal with the Chinese further out? There are compelling reasons for RIO to make a counter off. Tom Albanese is afterall a uranium bull and wants RIO to maintain its presence in the industry at a time when it's Ranger (ERA) and Rossing mines are in serious decline. Also, the likes of RIO and BHP have traditionally and substantially owned the deposits they have mined, rather than just providing a mining service to other entities. Also, the bid required for RIO to win control of Husab will be less than what it would have been prior to the Japanese earthquake. I am truly undecided on all this, but I would guess RIO will counter offer once the Chinese position is made definite.