"the only people who know there will be or could be a t/o will be the directors of these possible companies that could or may t/o extract"
In case you haven't realised - the TO game is ALREADY formally in progress INCLUDING a downstream offer for EXT if required by ASIC, ref details below.
Whether CGNPC's offer is firmed up and raised and / or trumped by RIO remains to be seen - but as I said before - "There is No doubt - the money is there! RIO have it and China have it in spades. And a great auction only needs 2 bidders"
A Possible Offer is not an idle step made on a whim and is a MANDATORY requirement required by Rules 2.2-2.4 of the Takeover Code in certain circumstances. It sets off a chain of events, engages the TO rules and prevents certain discussions and share dealings. A "Firm Offer" in accordance with Rule 2.5 CANNOT be made until the pre-conditions have been met or waived. The agreed target date for achieving the pre-conditions prior to a Firm Offer is 3 May.
We also know that CGNPC have an ambitious reactor build programme. RIO's Ranger mine is in terminal decline AND currently temporarily shut down AND threatened to be shut down permanently. The question is - can CGNPC or RIO afford not to takeover EXT?? Bring on the auction!!
In regard to your comments re dividends for the standalone case - dividends wont flow until at least 2016 and probably way beyond - until after a full year of name plate production is achieved, following which cash flows will be sucked up by debt payments and CAPEX for expansion e.g. PDN & ERA.
I'd rather take the TO capital gain now and move on to find ANOTHER 10 bagger! I'm sure a number of shareholders and posters would agree with this?
Oh - and by the way - you should marry your girlfriend - particularly if she is beautiful and has heaps of EXT shares!
EXT Price at posting:
$8.55 Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
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