Kamala opens by kicking Trumps ass, page-190

''she's going well..be well ahead shortly.''

one would think so - but, it's early days

I wrote this before Biden stepped down -

20.7.2024
74840844

''yes he will ''

at this stage- Trump is favourite

but as very recent history has shown - 2 things are crystal

1. that large political events that sway things - can happen in microseconds
and there's a whole lot of microseconds left in the race - about 4 months worth

2. that there is such a thing as political momentum - same as there is in sport with teams or individuals having momentum to reach their peak ------- then what?

The momentum has been crystal clear for Trump in the last weeks - SCOTUS wins, my bleeding ear sympathy, case dismissals -

Trump is on a roll - no question there. But, will he peak? Will he peak too early?

and if he peaks - what happens then??

what happens if the Democrats make changes - and get some momentum - and then their peak is at the election and Trump is in decline??

Whilst I fully agree that Trump looks like a winner atm --------- the race is NOT a foregone conclusion and the race still has a long way to go.

ATM, the betting markets suggest that Trump would beat Biden - fairly comfortably

but, the markets certainly do not suggest a runaway favourite situation for which 'party' will win -------- meaning that if the runners are different - so too is the potential for the race to the line