Kamala opens by kicking Trumps ass, page-382

Poll watchers are focusing on three key groups as they scramble to figure out how Vice President Kamala Harris is shaking up the race: young voters, Hispanics and Black men.

Why it matters: All groups matter in presidential politics, but some matter more than others.

• After an insane few weeks in politics, the pros will wait for polls with large cross-sections of specific groups before moving advertising dollars around.

Driving the news: Republicans are bracing for a little Harris bump, or a "Honeymoon," as former President Trump's pollster Tony Fabrizio wrote Tuesday.

• His prediction proved prescient: Reuters/Ipsos gave Harris a 2-point lead: 44%–42%.
• Yahoo showed the head-to-head race tied: 46%–46%.
• Meanwhile, NPR/Marist had Trump up by 1 point: 46% to 45%.

What we're watching: Pre-Biden exit, both Democrats and Republicans had certain historically unusually — and slightly puzzling — advantages.

• Biden was actually up among the crucial 60-and-up crowd, reversing a trend of the last five cycles. They matter for one simple reason: They vote.
• Privately, some Biden officials weren't convinced that older voters would stick with the younger Harris. They are about to find out.

Between the lines: Biden's theory of the case had been that young voters, who were flirting with Trump, would come home on Election Day.

• In 2020, Biden won voters under the age of 30 by 24 points, according to Pew Research's comprehensive analysis of the election.
• But Harvard's comprehensive young voter survey (released in April) had Biden up a mere 8 points. A New York Times/Siena College survey earlier this month found Trump was down by 3 points among likely voters aged 18–29.
• Those numbers are potentially deeply concerning for Democrats. But both parties think the youth vote is best described as fickle at this point in the race

The other side: Republicans are wondering if Trump's apparent inroads with Black and Hispanic voters — especially males — will endure in a face-to-face match-up with Harris.
https://www.axios.com/2024/07/24/trump-harris-polls-2024-election


I think we can both agree there is a lot to happen before Novemeber .