I have taken the average kantar china market share for each 6 month period and worked out the Revenue for each percent of market share. For the 6 months ending 30/6/17, the market share was an average of 3.1% and the revenue for each percent was $16.5 (51m total) and for the 6 months ending 31/12/17, the average market share was 4.5% and the revenue per percent was $25.7 million.
There is a huge difference in the revenue per percent of the kantar market share. It is more than 50% higher in the latest quarter. I must be using the incorrect numbers some where. Can someone please go through what I have done and double check my inputs.
I further add that even at $25.7m for each percent of market share, the total market value is implied to be $2.6bn. But I have read in other places that the china infant formula market is valued at almost $20 bn (USD I assume). Can someone please provide information to clarify this.
On a side note, our market share according to Kantar has gone up 1.9% in the last 6 months. If we assume that the increase in market share is approximately proportional to the spend on marketing, then our rate of market share will increase in these 6 months. Based on this information, it looks like we will could be near 8% near the end of this 6 month period. The only question is, do we take $26m revenue for each percent of market share or do we take $16.5m.
Thanks
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