My thoughts, after further researching/due dilignc, something others could contribute to as well, rather then make it sound like a Q&A forum or a fightclub!!
Alternatively feel free to 'Tell 'im he's dreaming' (quote from 'The Castle')
Ok here goes. ------------------------------------------------------------
Answers to Digz 4 Q's :)
1) Yes, its possible & Bob's raised the bounty. "Catch me if u can"
All thats needed is safe drilling & proved reserves for now!! After which, its open season & no, I dont mean Sth America for now, just Browse basin (BB). FYI, Bob sold his scrap metal biz to Sims group who are dual-listed in the US & AU & trade at about $20/sh. So the Silver-surfer would want a better deal this time, IMHO.
2) Out of 171.3m shares on issue, certain % is tightly held betn Wellington, Talbot & KAR's Directors.
Putting one's M&A hat, u'd start buying at market till u get a substantial holding & then take one of the above major shareholders out. Think there's a minimum % after which y'r name becomes public. So pls read the recent events on Cons Media betn Stokes & Packer, as well as BG-PES-AOE's triangle or MCC-Arcelor-Posco deals, to understand how M&A's work in the Biz world (friendly or hostile, judge for yr'self).
3) Reasonable value will b between $20-50 IMO, so lets hope price of oil stays in the US$60-70/bbl range & KAR can prove the reserves by Nov-Dec for KT & Pos.
My logical explanation follows below,
Bob quoted Hess Oil instead of Woodside (no offence to Conoco for now!!). Looking at their Proved reserves (1P) for both these minnows, compared to Exxon, Chevron & Conoco.
COP: Offered $9.5b to Origin for 50% of its 4.62 tcf or 2P-4751 PJ reserves (A$4/GJ for 4751 PJ = A$19b), after Origin refused BG's unrealistic offer!!
Realistically KAR's current NPV is US$5b for a 7 Tcf prospect or A$37.4/sh. (ie A$6410/171m sh = $37.43/sh).
BG dont have any infrastruc in place in WA, so I'd rule them out for now.
Should KAR's prospects b over 20 Tcf+ gas, then use the above figure for their 40-49% interest.
4) My realistic bet would b the last two, COP or WPL.
WPL needs more gas for its Pluto LNG & is competing with Chevron. They've drilled some dusters recently & have agreed to buy additional gas from Apache's nearby Julimar & Brunello gasfields.
WPL are looking aggressively at future LNG mkts esp. & may want a slice of KAR's BB assets. Its about size of prospects, as Don Volte said at a UBS preso last month. As for Conoco, its all about who's got the bigger set of wheels.
Exxon has Jansz-Io giant gas field in deeper water, Chevron has Gorgon & Wheatstone, Conoco sitting with small pickings in the Timor sea/ZOCA. Conoco & Chevron have onshore processing facilities, so I dont see why Conoco would let anyone else on its turf, least WPL who didn't do anything & are now drilling in deeper waters for more gasfields!! How could WPL have possibly missed this for 29 years!!
Karoon did get lucky, as some will argue. All part of folklore, IMO.
Arizona based mob Liberty Petrol picked these 2 blocks, WA314P & WA-315P, in 2001 for a bargain, & KAR got in just when these were to expire. KAR will still pay LP, 1.5% royalty on production frm 2014 for 5 years & then 2% per annum thereafter. Its all about location & reserve estimates!!
KAR realised that onshore VIC's brownfield acreage would have never give them a place on the podium with the likes of WPL, STO & ORG, hence the foray into BB. Time will tell how this story unfolds.
In the meantime, keep practising the moonwalk, Armstrong style (or Jacko style). Look fwd to spudding KT on/around the 20th of July, Moon-landing - 40th anniversary, another Americn Milestone this month after the now bygone 4th of July, which makes it, one small step for Karoon, one large step for Karoon-kind!!!
Meanwhile, KARry on Dreaming!!
Just my musings
KAR Price at posting:
$9.34 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)