Karoon Coming Milestones, page-124

The fascist little Ayatollah still manages to export 3.2m bopd despite Trump reimposing sanctions over the nuclear program, which continued under Biden, but the oil gets exported regardless and OPEC exempted Tehran from quotas because of them. So maybe Biden could take the sanctions seriously in his remaining time, but as he has dementia, he would only get serious before breakfast and have forgotten all about it after his first slice of toast. The more likely and concerning scenario is the regional conflict that is now looming will disrupt Iran’s production and supply chains. Oil markets have recently spectacularly misread the chances of ceasefire talks in Qatar succeeding despite Hamas refusing to take part unless Israel surrendered and grovelled for mercy, so the ceasefire talks were always a complete sham from the get go and merely wishful thinking on the part of USA and Egypt & Qatar who all set themselves up as intermediaries even though only Israel turned up to the table. Now Oil markets have to reverse their foolish optimism and factor in the possibility that 3.2m bopd going out Iran’s back door is in jeopardy. With any luck the Iranian population will mount a revolution, lynch the fascist little Ayatollah and the brief civil war will be over quickly…or not and oil prices never look back, who knows. But shorters are about to hit the emergency button.