Used a LLM to do a senstivity analysis for 2H24 production,...

Used a LLM to do a senstivity analysis for 2H24 production, using the FY guidance provided from 2024 HYresults.

1. Production for full year 2024 (guidance): 10.5 - 12.5 MMboe
2. Production in 1H24 (from earlier report): 5.08 MMboe
3. Remaining production for 2H24: 5.42 - 7.42 MMboe

We'll use threescenarios:

• Low: 5.42 MMboe
• Mid: 6.42 Mmboe
• High: 7.42 Mmboe

Sensitivity analysisbased on this information and the cost guidance provided:

Assumptions andCalculations:

1. Unit production costs: Used midpoint of US$12.75/boe
2. Unit DD&A: Used midpoint of US$16.5/boe
3. Finance costs and interest: Used midpoint of US$40m for the year, so US$20m for the half
4. Other operating costs: Used midpoint of US$33m for the year, so US$16.5m for the half
5. Business Development costs: Used midpoint of US$11.5m for the year, so US$5.75m for the half

EBITDA Calculation:Revenue - (Production costs + Other operating costs + Business Developmentcosts)

NPAT Calculation:EBITDA - DD&A - Finance costs - Taxes (assumed 34% rate on profit beforetax)

Operating Cash FlowCalculation: EBITDA - Taxes - Assumed working capital changes

Notes:

1. This analysis doesn't include capital expenditures or the Petrobras contingent consideration, which would impact cash flow but not EBITDA or NPAT directly.
2. The sensitivity to oil price changes remains significant, with a $5/bbl change resulting in EBITDA changes of about $27-30 million per half-year at the given production levels.
3. The production increase from 1H24 to 2H24 results in higher potential EBITDA, NPAT, and cash flows compared to the first half, assuming similar price levels.
4. This analysis is still simplified and doesn't account for all complex factors like specific contract terms, operational issues, or geopolitical events that could impact financial performance.

Not financial advice but just some calculations I used a program to help me complete, not sure of the accuracy.