I didn't mind the fully franked dividend. Unfranked dividends would represent a poor return IMO, especially with the SP at this level.
I'd be happy to see the buyback expanded but we've been really pumping CapEx of US$177m and we have to budget for the last (big) Petrobras deferred acquisition payment (US$85m) in Jan25. The final payment will be US$45m in Jan26.
I'd rather not drawdown on the 12.5% RBL Facility but with the SP currently at half price, it seems a reasonable gambit.
Aug24 Bauna production has been robust.
The BOD say Who Dat is pumping 42kbopd. Kar En's 30% share represents a rate of 4.5mbopa, which is much higher than guidance. Natural decline may well see it lower? I'd expect it to overachieve for at least 4mbopa. Add Dr J saying Bauna will achieve low guidance and you have 7.5mbopa. That's 11.5mbopa. Its not micro matters slaying the Kar En SP at the moment. Although some uncertainty over the Bauna pipeline integrity may well play a part.
The Energy Sector saw lower Chinese imports in Jul24 but overall Asian imports bounced back in Aug24. The Chinese economy has been faltering for sometime now. The Japanese economy on life support. Germany's economy has been suffering higher costs of production since the Nordsteam loss of cheap Russian Gas.
MSM constantly talks of impending worldwide recession with a resultant impact on Oil demand. We're already there. The only time Oil has been cheaper in Gold terms, was the 2020 COVID plandemic.
The lower Oil price is being driven by paper traders. The Fundamentals remain.
Macro talk is all about the US Yield Curve un-inverting on friday and that this is always a time of sharemarket falls.
Also talk of when the US Federal Reserve cuts rates going into a recession, that this again is a time of sharemarket falls. We'll know in 10 days.
Also talk of Warren Buffett selling Apple stock and Bank of America stock (retains/builds Oil stocks though), to cash up for the impending crash.
However, over 90% of the US S&P500 is owned by 1% of Americans (aka "the rich"). Three firms, BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street are the major shareholders on 88% of the S&P500.
It seems to me, that if the US sharemarket is to crash, it will be when "the rich" say so. Plunge Protection teams have been seen to intervene since the COVID scamdemic. If the US market is simon, then other World markets will crash when simon says.
This graph shows the Oil price measured in Gold up to the end of Aug24. The ratio stands at close to 40 barrels of Oil to one ounce of Gold, at the time of writing.
An Oil price of $35 would cause its value measured in Gold to sink to a price only seen once before in human history ... for a couple of months during the COVID Plandemic.
That price would require a Worldwide shutdown and peace in the Middle East ... very unlikely, unless Israel is exterminated. Even then OPEC+BRICS would resume manipulation for higher prices.
When the GFC hit it, destroyed ~2.5mbopd. The main reason the World recovered was US fracking.
When the COVID Plandemic hit, it destroyed ~10mbopd.
Energy drives every economy, finance steers economies. The West control debt, the BRICS+++ tentatively control commodities.
The World consumes 4 times the amount of Energy it discovers.
US fracking is battling the Red Queen Syndrome and a likely crisis in 2025.
The price of Oil will be volatile.
PMs like Gold may be the most respected source of value at a sovereign level ... but the West is experiencing the worst sovereign debt crisis in 100 years. The West uses the US$ as a weapon.
The BRICS+++ are challenging US$ world currency reserve status using Gold but they have a long way to go.
It is not in the West's interests to see Gold succeed. It is not in the West's interests to see the price of Oil rise.
The world recovered from the GFC thanks to fracking however the US now battles the Red Queen Syndrome which many commentators suggest will culminate in 2025.
The US seeks to control the Guyana/Venezuela oil fields and last week commandeered Maduros' equivalent of Air Force One.
After Weimar, Hitler developed the Reichsmark. I expect the West to initiate a digital, programmable currency. Maybe soon because the WEF/US MIC will do anything to avoid another Trump Presidency.
The World will still turn as WW3 continues to rage silently. MSM will only report propaganda that suits their purpose.
The one thing that will be needed ... is Oil. Of course, if Nations then nationalise energy industries, Kar En may falter due to sovereign risk crises.
KAR Price at posting:
$1.47 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)