Agreed. Josh Young is still calling $100 Oil. Eric Nuttall $75-$85. Of course, they are all biased, as are we.
I was citing Steve St Angelo when I said:
"When the GFC hit, it destroyed ~2.5mbopd. The main reason the World recovered was US fracking.
When the COVID Plandemic hit, it destroyed ~10mbopd.
Energy drives every economy, finance steers economies.
The World consumes an extra 4 times the amount of Energy it discovers.
US fracking is battling the Red Queen Syndrome and a likely crisis in 2025.
The price of Oil will be volatile."
Josh Young actually said the World fell 30mbopd short when the COVID Scamdemic lockdown occurred. Oil prices went negative as storage ran out.
The lower Oil prices go, the more high cost producers are shut out. The cure for low prices is low prices.
Who Dat is low cost, with considerable production potential apart from the 3 prospects at East, South and West.
Every Commentator everywhere is predicting impending recession, if not depression. Low cost producers will survive. The SP sucks but only if you have to sell.
The World will still turn. Non OPEC producers are pumping now. "Frackers went from drilling one mile down to 3 miles now. They and Deepwater offshore wells are producing but they are all high cost producers now, with costs upwards of $100" - Steve St Angelo
A Trump Administration will drill, drill, drill but, just as the COVID bioweapon, Antifa and BLM et al were released in 2019/20, the WEF will advocate for domestic pipeline terrorism and more.
Trump made the USA a net exporter of Oil and equivalents but the rate of increase slumped to 3.5% (yoy for Aug24), down from 13.5% the previous year and the lowest point since fracking really kicked in.
AI, digital device obsessions and crypto all contribute to electrical generation demands. The World population's participation in the western lifestyle increases. Alternative energy sources can't keep up either. Peak Oil is still a long way away.
At the moment, the GOM is bracing for Hurricane Francine:
Some say this is supporting Oil prices at the moment, still:
In the past month: KAR down 16.19% BPT down 12.24% WDS down 5.88% STO down 9.78% Chevron down 3.25% Exxon down 3.35% Shell down 6.89%
Why are Aussie Energy producers so harshly treated relative to Oil Majors?
Kar shorts continue:
We may hit the Top 20 soon. Mind you, there are no SP catalysts on the horizon. Its a great time for shorters to manipulate. Kar Resource update won't be until early next year. Neon update same.
Bauna production is looking at 2mbo for both Q3 and Q4, while Who Dat is on target for 1mbo for both Q3 and Q4. Perhaps the late Oct24 Q3 Quarterly Report may provide some impetus for the Kar SP, should it confirm these production estimates.
Otherwise, its all up to the price of Oil.
All this bullishness has to be countered with bearish opinion. The big, green chicken has been squawking for sometime. Today he brought out an update thus:
He states Chinese switching 30% of trucking fleets away from Diesel to NG powered engines. With NG at historically low prices and a BTU ratio of 6: 1 compared to Oil, its understandable. The USA is the largest Oil, oil equivalents and Natural Gas producer in the World. Their Oil fracking is producing so much NG byproduct, they are just flaring it off at these prices.
China is the largest EV producer in the World but how much has that eaten into their Oil demands? World power demands are exponential. Today the World still burns as much Wood as it ever has.
I think Doomberg also underestimates the power of the WEF in determining the upcoming US Federal Election.
Interesting to hear Doomberg talk of the Oil price measured in Gold. He further stated, that in inflation adjusted terms using 1983, the current Oil price is at US$22.
My bet here is still on a much higher Oil price but of course, its up to the individual investor to decide. The SP sucks but only if you have to sell now.
(20min delay)