thanks for summarising the media reports pointbreak - it's good to have it all in one place.
I think what you say about WPL makes sense, I've wondered for a while why they wouldn't be interested in KARs assets and I think this deal could be the catalyst for a JV (I had earlier thought t/o).
In the absence of more detail your 30 OPEX seems fair but we really do need detail here. As you have correctly identified, valuations turn on this given the margin difference with POO likely to remain 40-60 for at least the life of Bauna.
I'm also very interested to know more about how Bauna can add value to Kangaroo given the production platform, especially as Bauna tapers off in (2?) years. However I'm not sure what sort of CAPEX and OPEX on top would be required for these to be 'bolt on' production in a couple of years.
I think until we have some more clarity on these matters the SP is likely to trend up towards $2 but we all know KAR would still be undervalued at that level so I don't think we'll be too excited yet. But you are right, were we to get a bumper deal and then a self funding 50-50 JV with WPL, KAR would undoubtably be worth multiples of where we are now and a SP high wouldn't be out of the question if POO surprises in 3-5 years. Even a more modest deal where KAR retains say 35% of its overall Santos assets in exchange for funding would be transformative. Will be interesting to see what leaks out over the next 6 weeks and looking forward to KAR featuring heavily in the business press for the rest of the year.
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thanks for summarising the media reports pointbreak - it's good...
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