keep an eye on...?, page-140

"Hard as rock, solid and proven fundamentals. Hype it up, this one is in the bag."

Inception - lol that is about the most ludicrous statement you could make on early to mid stage drug trial results.


"As previously pointed out ( and using recent deals as a yard stick)upfront payments could amount to figures 3-4 times our current market cap - alone from any future milestone payments and double digit royalties!"

of course they could but only in time a lot also comes down to how good the companies bargaining power is. In the same year that ISIS licensed mipmoersen to Genzyme in a monster $1.9B deal with $300M upfront ANP licensed ATL-1102 to TEVA for $2M upfront and $100M in milestones while chasing a massive MS market.

I think in short term price appreciation post Phase II data provided it delivers successfully and gets licensed then the upfront figure will be the yard stick, milestones are always heavily back ended with the bulk coming on successful Phase III, FDA approval and then sales targets so pricing in is only really vaild once they are achieved - it's a good risk adverse play for pharma as opposed to simply paying upfront for a drug that only fails later down the track. Anywhere above $10M upfront would be a good outcome $25M would be great.

My opinion only of course.