Keep cool, calm and collected

Hello, this is my first post here on Hotcopper (and perhaps my last .

I am a DCC shareholder, currently holding 106,500 shares. I have been following the stock since the receverse-takover, because of my strong interest in cryptocurrencies (which I have in turn been following for the past three years). I first bought 18,000 shares on 3rd March 2015 for 0.12, I then topped up with 8,000 shares on 24th April at an average buy price of 0.108. After the announcement of Airpocket, I bought an additional 51,000 shares at 0.26 on 25th May, and on the same day bought another 2,000 shares with the left-over cash in my broker account at 0.25. After the recent decline in the share value, I topped up with 27,000 shares on 25th June at an average price of 0.1557 and on the same day I bought an additional 2,500 shares before the market close at 0.16.

Anyway, long story cut short: my average buy price is 19.9, with a sensitivity of 532.5 ausie dollars per tick.
As many of you here, I am currently seeing red numbers in my P&L. However, my focus is on the medium to long term. The real crunch time will be Q1 and particularly Q2 2016, when the first revenue numbers from the launch of alpha Airpocket should appear. The upside potential is huge, whilst the downside is limited. What is the downside? If Airpocket becomes a total flop and the revenues from Mintsy, Direct and regular Pocket don’t generate a profit for the company by Q2 2016 – then I will be looking to sell and crystalize some loss. But even in such an adverse scenario, I imagine the share price would be around 0.07 – a loss of say 14K ausie dollars for me.

What is the updside? That has been discussed quite extensively here, but just drawing comparison with TransferWise (valuation of $ 1 billion), or drawing comparison with any US based crypto-currency company (most of which have a fraction of the product range on offer compared to DCC) – it is quite substantial. I am more than willing to take this calculated risk.

Please bear in mind that out of some 170 million shares, only 47 million are free-floating. This stock can be manipulated in a ridiculous way – my buy of 2,500 shares on 25th June moved the stock by 6.7% - that is insane! If I was a competition, I would be praying the stock underperforms (in fact would do anything I can to drive the stock value down) – and I would be praying that Airpocket goes wrong. However if it does go right – no players will be able to offset the uptrend in the stock.

Last but not least – don’t forget that all those private investors owning roughly 130 million shares would be looking at a much bigger loss that all of us here together combined (and what about the institutions who recently bought in at 0.22? There are way too many smart people who’re in this for the longer term, who will try their best to make it a success and will make sure they don’t lose.

I could write another essay about the technology behind Airpocket and why I believe it’ll be a success, but this post is already too long. Conclusion: if you can afford to hold till Q2 2016, don’t waste your time following the (manipulated) charts day-to-day – don’t stress yourselves out! Calculate how much you are willing to lose in an adverse scenario, and if you are willing to take the risk – keep the stock and wait for the numbers in 2016.