keep some spare $$$

Below are personal feeling only, FYI basis and hope for some insightful discussion.

Wouldn't go all out buying on NCM at this level:
POG going lower in short term
1. The world is too calm - not much happening at the moment and US economy is seemingly growing slowly
2. Will believe in COMEX/bullion bank/paper gold default when it happens, this has been discussed to death for years.
3. Increasing yield on bonds will draw money away from gold and move back into bonds.
4. Gold ETF liquidation temporarily increasing gold supply
5. Wide spread of lower gold price holding (pent up) demand
6. QE doesn't equal straight into inflation, just gives potential for higher inflation. However it is currently more likely for deflation.

POG going higher in the long term
1. US economy has been enjoying low interest rate thanks to QE, when that finishes how will business cope with higher rates.
2. China/Europe/Indian slowdown, in the case of China and India also added the rise of inflation.
3. Government debt all around, US/Japan/Europe/China. All very unsustainable and require more QE to pay for themselves.
4. POG at lower than $1000/oz is supply destructive and there will be lag in the demand/supply momentum when price rise again.
5. Gold ETF liquidation will at some point stop and the reduction in supply becomes drastically clear.
6. When the reversal comes it will be sharp, thanks to pent up demand. The trigger would probably be reasons 1 to 3 in long term, and 4 to 5 in the medium term.

Disadvantage of NCM:
1. Management - lack of transparency and plenty of egos
2. Overhang from debt fueled expansion/projects

Advantage of NCM:
1. World class orebodies, not the highest cost producer.
2. Management under pressure from various sources to perform, conduct cost reviews and etc.
3. AUD depreciation softening the pain of lower current POG.
4. Potential take over target

Summary: Wouldn't buy this company for the people that run it, rather the outside factors that should allow the company to rise up regardless of management incompetence. Don't go all out yet, it is more likely to go down in the short term than up.